Market Overview for SUI/USDT on 2025-10-08

• SUI/USDT dipped to $3.4407 on 24-hour low but bounced toward $3.4985 by midday.
• Volume surged to 1.16 million SUI at 14:15 ET, coinciding with a bullish reversal pattern.
• RSI hovered near neutral territory while MACD showed bearish divergence after an early morning rally.
• Bollinger Bands reflected moderate volatility with price testing the lower band in the early session.
• Fibonacci levels suggested potential support at $3.443 and resistance at $3.470 in the near term.

SUI/USDT opened at $3.4941 on October 7, peaked at $3.5167, and closed at $3.4622 as of 12:00 ET on October 8. Total volume over 24 hours reached 13.6 million SUI, with a notional turnover of approximately $45.2 million. The session featured a late-night breakdown toward $3.4407, followed by a modest rebound.

Structure & Formations

Price carved a bearish trend from the early evening, with a key breakdown to $3.4407 on October 8. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 14:15 ET, where the candle closed at $3.4708 after opening at $3.4564, signaling possible short-term support. A bearish evening star formed near $3.493 on October 7, confirming a pullback. The $3.4569 level acted as a multi-time support and may see renewed buying interest.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover around $3.470 early in the session. The 50-period line remained above the 20-period line, suggesting a continuation of the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits near $3.476, slightly above the 200-day MA, which is at $3.453, indicating a mixed short-to-medium-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish in the early morning, with the line dipping below the signal line after a short-lived rally. The histogram reflected a weakening bullish momentum after 02:00 ET. RSI remained in the 50-60 range for much of the session, suggesting moderate buying pressure, but failed to enter overbought territory. A bearish divergence appeared around 06:30 ET as RSI peaked at 60 while prices continued to fall.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased moderately after the 14:15 ET bullish reversal, with the Bollinger Band width expanding from ~0.014 to ~0.019. Price tested the lower band near $3.4407 and bounced back above the middle band by early evening. The 20-period BB remained in a moderate state with no strong squeeze patterns observed, suggesting that trend continuation is more likely than a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply to 1.16 million SUI at 14:15 ET, coinciding with the bullish engulfing pattern. Notional turnover reached a session high of $3.8 million during this period, indicating strong conviction in the reversal attempt. However, volume remained below average after 16:00 ET, with no clear confirmation of a breakout above $3.475. A divergence between price and volume suggested weakening conviction in the current rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the $3.4407 low to the $3.4935 high identified key retracement levels: 38.2% at $3.469 and 61.8% at $3.486. Price approached $3.469 but failed to hold it, suggesting a potential bounce or further pullback. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement from the recent swing high at $3.5167 to the low of $3.4407 sits at $3.478, a level that may face resistance if bears take control again.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent reversal structure at $3.4407 and the bearish divergence in MACD, a backtest strategy could be built around a short position triggered on a close below $3.4569 with a stop just above the 14:15 ET high of $3.4708. A target of $3.442 aligns with the 23.6% retracement level from the bullish engulfing pattern. This setup would allow for a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.5 and is best suited for a 6–8-hour time frame. The strategy relies on the assumption that the bearish momentum will continue, and volume will confirm the breakdown on the next session’s open.