Market Overview: Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT) – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• SUIUSDT opened at $3.6735, reached $3.71, dropped to $3.478, and closed at $3.489.
• A volatile 24-hour range of $0.233 saw declining momentum and bearish divergence.
• Volume spiked during sharp downward moves but failed to confirm further bullish strength.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while Bollinger Bands showed expansion and reversion tendencies.
• Fibonacci retracement levels aligned with key support and resistance on the 15-min chart.

Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT) opened at $3.6735 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at $3.489 (12:00 ET), with a high of $3.71 and low of $3.478. Total volume was 92,093,429.3 and total turnover amounted to $334.5 million. The 24-hour period saw pronounced price swings, particularly after 8:15 AM ET, where a sharp decline pushed the pair into oversold territory.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick formation displayed a bearish continuation pattern, with a large bearish engulfing pattern forming after 8:15 AM ET. This was followed by a consolidation phase, with price hovering near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the earlier bullish swing. Notable support appeared at $3.52 and $3.478, while resistance clustered around $3.60 and $3.66. A morning doji and an evening star pattern suggested indecision and potential exhaustion in both directions.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (moving average) crossed below the 50-period MA, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period MA was also trending downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, SUIUSDT closed below the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period MAs, signaling a weak position and a likely continuation of the downward trend if no strong buyers emerge.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative throughout most of the session, with the histogram showing a gradual expansion as bearish momentum accelerated. The RSI hit levels below 30 after 3:00 PM ET, confirming an oversold condition. However, price failed to rebound meaningfully, which suggests a weak bearish continuation rather than a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the sharp drop in the early hours of the session, particularly after 8:15 AM ET. Price traded well below the 2σ (standard deviation) lower band for several hours, indicating overreaction to bearish news or sentiment. The bands have since started to contract, potentially hinting at a temporary pause in volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish breakouts, peaking at over 1.8 million at 8:15 AM ET, but declined during the consolidation phase. Turnover spiked in line with the largest price moves, confirming the bearish breakout. However, volume failed to support any subsequent bounces, indicating weak conviction in the upside. Divergences were observed in the late hours, with rising volume not supporting higher prices.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent bullish swing (from $3.478 to $3.71) aligned with $3.59, which became a key area of resistance. The 61.8% level at $3.478 was briefly tested and held, but failed to provide significant support. The 23.6% level near $3.65 provided temporary resistance during the consolidation phase. These levels may dictate the next directional move, depending on order flow and sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA (death cross), with a stop-loss above the 23.6% Fibonacci level and a target at the 61.8% level. A long position is triggered when the RSI exits oversold territory (below 30) and price breaks above the 20-period MA with increasing volume. Given the current position of SUIUSDT well below the 20 and 50-period MAs and RSI near oversold levels, the strategy could generate a long entry signal if the RSI bounces and volume increases. Short-term traders may use these levels as reference points to test the validity of the setup in the next 24 hours.