Market Overview: Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• SUIUSDT closed at 3.5088 after a 24-hour decline from 3.669, signaling bearish pressure with high volatility.
• Price breached key support levels multiple times, forming bearish patterns like dark cloud cover and hanging man.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, but volume remains muted.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion, indicating heightened volatility, with price testing the lower band in the final 15-minute window.
• Turnover reached $10.3M as price fell below 3.55, highlighting weak buying interest amid bearish momentum.

SUIUSDT opened at 3.624 on October 3, 2025, at 12:00 ET, and closed at 3.5088 on October 4, 2025, at 12:00 ET, after trading as high as 3.669 and as low as 3.4921. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 31,353,282.4 SUI, with notional turnover reaching approximately $103 million. The pair exhibited strong bearish momentum amid multiple support breaks and low buying pressure.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a strong bearish bias as SUIUSDT broke below the 3.60–3.55 key support cluster. A dark cloud cover pattern formed on the 15-minute chart at 17:15 ET, followed by a hanging man at 17:30 ET, both indicating a high probability of continued selling. The 3.55 level proved resilient during a brief rebound but ultimately failed to hold. A significant bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 23:30 ET, confirming the continuation of the downtrend. Key support levels are now at 3.53 and 3.50, with 3.50 acting as a recent pivot.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower, with price consistently below both, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period line acted as dynamic resistance during minor pullbacks, particularly in the 05:00–06:00 ET timeframe. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 3.58, the 100-period at 3.61, and the 200-period at 3.65, all of which represent critical resistance levels if a reversal occurs. Price is now trading well below these, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

MACD & RSI

MACD maintained a bearish crossover with the signal line, and the histogram remained in negative territory, indicating sustained bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to generate a strong bullish divergence in price. This suggests caution as a bounce may lack conviction unless supported by rising volume. MACD may cross back above the signal line if a short-term rebound forms, but this appears unlikely without a significant shift in sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened during the sell-off, with SUIUSDT reaching the lower band at 3.4921. Price remained near or slightly above the lower band in the final 15-minute window, indicating that the bearish trend may still have room to run. The midline hovered around 3.53, which aligns with a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from the 3.669 high to the 3.4921 low. This suggests that a bounce to the midline is possible but unlikely to hold without a sharp volume increase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key breakdowns, especially between 17:00 and 19:00 ET, as price fell from 3.669 to 3.55. The highest notional turnover occurred at 17:15 ET with a 15-minute turnover of $6.8M, coinciding with the dark cloud cover pattern. Subsequent volume tailed off, suggesting exhaustion in the short-term bearish move. However, the lack of buying interest below 3.55 indicates weak conviction in the bullish case. A divergence between price and volume may emerge if a reversal attempt occurs without a corresponding volume increase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 3.669 high to the 3.4921 low provide key reference points. The 61.8% retracement level is at 3.53, which coincides with the midline of the Bollinger Bands and acted as a temporary support during minor bounces. A retest of the 38.2% level at 3.56 could confirm a short-term rally, but a failure to hold above 3.56 would reinforce the bearish bias. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement from a larger swing high is at 3.53, which may act as a critical support cluster for the next 48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the identified patterns and conditions, a potential backtesting strategy could be triggered by a close above the 3.56 level on a 15-minute candle, coupled with a bullish divergence in RSI and increasing volume. Such a setup would aim to capture short-term countertrend moves within the broader bearish trend. If successful, the target would be a move toward 3.58–3.60, with a stop-loss placed below the 3.52–3.53 support range. This strategy would benefit from the current oversold conditions but must be monitored for divergence in volume and momentum as the trend remains bearish.

Forward-looking, a short-term bounce toward 3.56 is possible but unlikely to challenge key resistance levels without a notable volume increase. Investors should remain cautious ahead of the next 24 hours, as the bearish bias remains intact with price continuing to trade below critical moving averages and support levels. A break below 3.50 would likely accelerate the downtrend and open the door for further declines toward 3.47–3.45.