Market Overview for SUI on 2025-08-28

• Price surged 4.7% over 24 hours, breaking a consolidation range and testing key resistance.
• High volatility emerged mid-day with volume spiking, confirming strength in the upward move.
• RSI and MACD both show positive momentum, suggesting continued bullish bias for now.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, signaling increased volatility, with price near the upper band.
• Volume and turnover diverged after the initial breakout, requiring caution ahead of further moves.

SUIUSD opened at $3.4433 (12:00 ET-1) and closed at $3.5192 (12:00 ET) after a strong 24-hour session. The price reached a high of $3.5192 and a low of $3.4433, with total volume amounting to 2,545.1 and a turnover of $9,000.00 (approximated from data). The asset showed strong directional bias after a prolonged consolidation period.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a clear breakout from a consolidation pattern formed between $3.4433 and $3.4605, followed by a sharp rally to $3.5192. A key resistance level at $3.5192 was tested and held as support turned into resistance late in the session. A bullish engulfing pattern formed between $3.4433 and $3.5471 at 19:00 ET, indicating a strong reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed above key support levels, confirming the breakout in favor of the bulls. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, suggesting the longer-term trend remains positive.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover early in the session, with the histogram expanding as volume increased. The RSI climbed into overbought territory at the session’s peak, reaching 72, but remained below 80, suggesting the move, while strong, is not yet extreme. Both indicators point to continued momentum, though a correction may occur if the RSI remains overbought for an extended period.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the breakout, causing the Bollinger Bands to expand. Price closed near the upper band at $3.5192, indicating strength in the move. A retest of the lower band at $3.4605 could trigger a rebound if bullish conviction remains strong.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 19:00 ET, coinciding with the breakout candle, confirming the move. However, after the initial rally, volume dropped significantly, which could signal a lack of follow-through. Notional turnover remained relatively flat, indicating that the price action was not accompanied by large capital inflows. Divergence between volume and price suggests caution is warranted.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $3.4433 to $3.5192 shows key levels at $3.4896 (38.2%) and $3.4605 (61.8%). The 61.8% level was briefly tested and held, suggesting it could act as a strong support zone. The 38.2% level appears to be a key psychological barrier ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation, with a stop-loss placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $3.4605 and a take-profit target at $3.5192 or above. The MACD and RSI should be used to confirm momentum and overbought conditions before scaling in. Given the current price action and technical indicators, this strategy aligns well with the recent breakout and could be tested on historical SUIUSD data for accuracy and risk-reward calibration.