Market Overview for Stratis/Tether (STRAXUSDT) as of 2025-11-04

Summary
• Price declined from 0.0265 to 0.02539, closing with bearish momentum.
• Volatility surged post-midnight as price broke below 0.02600.
• On-balance volume highlights a key divergence around 0.02620.

Opening Narrative

Stratis/Tether (STRAXUSDT) opened at 0.02626 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.02866 before closing at 0.02539 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-04. The pair recorded a 24-hour low of 0.02422 and closed below its open. Total volume amounted to 44,778,145.0, while turnover (value) reached approximately 1,150.11 USD.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.02640–0.02650 on the 15-minute chart, signaling a shift in sentiment. Key support is forming around 0.02600–0.02580, with a potential pivot point at 0.02550. Resistance is evident at 0.02655–0.02670, where price previously failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both 20 and 50-period SMAs, suggesting near-term bearish bias. The 50-period SMA is at 0.02610, while the 20-period SMA sits at 0.02600. Daily MA levels (50, 100, 200) are not provided, but the 1-hour chart suggests a continued downward trend from the 50-day line.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned bearish, with the histogram showing increasing negative divergence. RSI is in oversold territory at ~30, indicating potential for a minor bounce, but momentum remains weak.

Bollinger Bands

Price has recently expanded beyond the upper Bollinger Band during the early hours, indicating heightened volatility. As of the latest close, price is near the lower band at 0.02539, suggesting possible support or continuation lower.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly post-midnight, coinciding with the sharp drop from 0.0265 to 0.0250. However, volume has since tailed off, indicating waning conviction in the move. Notional turnover also dropped after the initial selloff, showing reduced interest at current levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute retracement levels show 0.02610 (38.2%) and 0.02580 (61.8%) as key levels. On a daily scale, the 61.8% retrace of the prior bullish leg is near 0.02550, aligning with the current support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI and MACD suggest a potential short-term bounce from current oversold levels, but the divergence in volume and price action indicates a higher probability of a continuation in the bearish trend. A backtest using a simple RSI-based mean-reversion strategy—buying on RSI <30 and exiting on RSI >50—would likely struggle with false signals due to the sustained momentum. A more robust approach may involve combining RSI with price-volume divergence and Fibonacci levels for better entry timing.