Market Overview: Stratis/Tether (STRAXUSDT) – 2025-10-22

• Price action shows a bearish bias with a 0.78% decline on the day.
• Volume surged in the first 3 hours after 12:00 ET, then faded, suggesting early conviction but waning follow-through.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory mid-day but failed to trigger a meaningful bounce.
• Bollinger Bands tightened post-18:00 ET before a sharp 15-minute drop, signaling increasing bear pressure.
• Key support levels at 0.0315 and 0.0314 were tested and held, while 0.0317 appears as a short-term resistance.

On 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET, Stratis/Tether (STRAXUSDT) opened at 0.03286, hit a high of 0.03315, and closed at 0.03158 by 12:00 ET the next day. Total volume reached 6,500,748 STRAX, with a notional turnover of $204,520. The market experienced significant price swings, bearish candlestick formations, and notable volatility shifts.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action featured a strong bearish trend, with a key decline starting at 18:00 ET. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:15 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. The price tested multiple support levels, most notably 0.0315 and 0.0314, which held during early morning trading. A harami formation at 00:15 ET signaled bearish consolidation. These patterns suggest continued pressure from short sellers and limited buying interest.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed to the downside around 20:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA (0.0326) is currently above the 100 and 200-period lines (0.0325 and 0.0323, respectively), suggesting the pair remains in a bearish trend. Price closed below all three, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative around 19:00 ET and remained below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI dropped to 26 by 04:30 ET, entering oversold territory, but failed to trigger a meaningful bounce. This divergence suggests exhaustion in the bears but also a lack of strong counter-trend buying. The RSI is now at 27, maintaining a bearish stance.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was relatively high early in the session, with the Bollinger Bands widening, but they narrowed significantly post-18:00 ET. The price then broke below the lower band at 23:45 ET with a large-volume bar, signaling a potential short-term reversal in volatility. The price is now trading near the lower band, suggesting further downside could be limited unless a reversal occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly between 12:00–15:00 ET, with the largest 15-minute volume bar at 12:00 ET (1,059,678 STRAX). This was followed by a sharp decline in volume, suggesting early bearish conviction but limited follow-through. Notional turnover was also high during the initial hours but declined sharply after 18:00 ET. The price-volume divergence suggests fading momentum despite continued price declines.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the intra-day swing from 0.03315 to 0.03142, the 38.2% level (0.0321) was tested but broken, and the 61.8% level (0.0319) also failed. The price is currently approaching the 0.0314 support level, which is close to the 78.6% retracement level, suggesting potential for a pause or reversal if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed patterns and bearish momentum, a backtest strategy could be constructed based on detecting bearish candlestick signals such as the bearish engulfing and harami patterns on 15-minute charts. The hypothesis would involve entering short positions at the open of the bar following the pattern and exiting at the close of that bar, maintaining a strict 15-minute holding period. Transaction costs could be factored in at 0.1% per trade, while no partial exits or stop-loss mechanisms would be used for simplicity. This approach aligns with the observed price action and volume dynamics, particularly during the sharp sell-offs in the late evening hours.