Market Overview: Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) – Bullish Consolidation Amid High Volatility

• XLMJPY rallied 5.6% over the last 24 hours, forming strong bullish momentum in late ET trading.
• A 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern emerged after 10:30 PM ET, suggesting short-term strength.
• Volatility increased sharply around 9:45 PM and 4:15 AM ET, with volume surging during key breakouts.
• RSI reached overbought territory near 75, indicating potential pullback risk ahead.
• Price remains above the 20- and 50-period moving averages, confirming a bullish bias for now.

XLMJPY 24-Hour Summary

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at ¥56.48 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥59.12 on 2025-09-18 at the same time. The pair reached a high of ¥59.78 and a low of ¥56.11 during the period. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 896,635.2 units, while turnover amounted to ¥52,283,027.4.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a strong bullish trend with notable breakouts in the late ET hours. A breakout above ¥58.00 at 9:45 PM ET and a subsequent rally to ¥59.78 at 3:45 PM ET suggest increasing institutional participation and positive sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged around ¥56.11 (3:45 PM ET) and ¥57.12 (5:15 PM ET), both showing strong rejection of further downside. Resistance was initially found at ¥58.00, but the price surged past this and tested ¥59.09 during the early morning hours. A bullish engulfing pattern formed between 10:30 PM and 10:45 PM ET, with the body consuming the prior bearish candle. This pattern, combined with strong volume, indicates a short-term bullish bias. A doji at 4:00 AM ET near ¥58.91 suggests temporary indecision, but buying pressure quickly resumed.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both rising and were crossed above at the 8:00 PM ET candle. This confirms a strong short-term uptrend. The MACD line has remained above the signal line since 7:30 PM ET, with the histogram expanding positively, indicating strong bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages are in a bullish alignment, suggesting the trend remains intact for now.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

Relative strength has shown increasing momentum, with the RSI peaking at 75 during the 9:15 AM ET candle, indicating overbought conditions. Price remains above the upper Bollinger Band since 10:30 PM ET, indicating high volatility and a continuation pattern. The band’s width has expanded significantly during the rally, suggesting an increase in volatility that may lead to consolidation or a short-term correction.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked to over 94,532 units at 9:00 PM ET during the breakout above ¥58.00 and again at 9:45 AM ET as the price tested ¥59.09. The highest single-candle turnover occurred at 9:45 AM ET, reaching ¥5,577,942.5. Price and turnover aligned closely during these periods, confirming the strength of the move. A divergence in volume at the 4:00 AM ET candle suggests a possible pause in the upward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the ¥56.11–¥59.78 swing shows that the 61.8% level is now at ¥58.88 and was tested during the morning hours. The 38.2% level (~¥58.32) was also a minor resistance. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level (~¥57.77) has been tested twice during the past 24 hours and remains a critical support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on XLMJPY when the 15-minute candlestick closes above the 50-period moving average, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and rising volume. A stop-loss could be placed below the nearest Fibonacci support level (e.g., 61.8% at ¥58.88), and a take-profit could be set at the next Fibonacci resistance level (e.g., 78.6% or ¥59.63). This setup would aim to capture short-term bullish momentum while managing downside risk. Given recent volatility, a trailing stop could be used after the price surpasses ¥59.12 to protect profits during the next 24 hours.