Market Overview for Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY)

Summary
• XLMJPY broke above 34.17 and rallied to 35.38 amid high volume in the final hours.
• RSI surged into overbought territory suggesting short-term exhaustion but no bearish reversal.
• Bollinger Bands showed a modest expansion, with price hovering near the upper band.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 34.43, confirming a potential trend shift.
• Volume spiked in the last 45 minutes, confirming strength in the final push above 35.11.

At 12:00 ET−1, XLMJPY opened at 33.82 and traded as low as 33.77 before closing at 35.38 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 35.38 while the low was 33.77. Total volume was 98,666.1 and notional turnover reached 3,343,668.3 JPY.

Structure & Formations

A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 34.43, suggesting a potential reversal in the short-term bearish momentum. The price has now moved above the key 34.17 psychological level and is testing the 35.38 high as a new resistance. A 5-minute doji at 34.80 may indicate temporary indecision, but the overall structure remains bullish with no immediate bearish formations.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 5-minute chart are aligned with the recent upswing, both currently below the price, affirming the short-term bullish bias. The 50-period moving average is at 34.74, and the 20-period is at 34.91, suggesting price is in a strong uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMAs are likely all below the current price, indicating a continuation of the broader bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remains above zero with a positive histogram, reinforcing the bullish momentum.

The RSI surged to 73, entering overbought territory, but has not yet shown signs of a top. This suggests that while momentum is high, a short-term pullback could be expected, though not necessarily a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands on the 5-minute chart show a modest expansion, with price currently at the upper band (35.38). This indicates elevated volatility and a continuation of the bullish move. The 20-period Bollinger Band mean is at 34.69, with the standard deviation at 0.43, confirming the recent expansion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly in the final 45 minutes of the 24-hour window, particularly in the 12:45 PM–1:00 PM ET timeframe, confirming the strength of the move above 35.11 and 35.38. Notional turnover aligned with the volume increase, showing no signs of divergence. The overall volume profile remains supportive of the bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing low at 33.77 and high at 35.38, the 61.8% level is at 34.81 and the 38.2% level at 34.49. Price is currently above the 61.8% retracement, suggesting further upside potential. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels are not yet breached but remain relevant as potential continuation targets.

The market appears to be building a strong bullish case with a clean break above 34.17 and a powerful move to 35.38. Traders may watch for a potential pullback to test the 34.80 doji or the 61.8% retracement level. A failure to maintain above 34.80 could trigger a short-term consolidation, but the broader bullish bias seems intact.