Market Overview: Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

Summary
• Price opened at ¥42.81 and closed at ¥42.97 after a volatile session with a high of ¥45.31.
• Strong bearish momentum in the last 6 hours suggests a possible pullback.
• High volume observed near ¥44.80 and ¥43.90 indicates key cluster zones.
• Bollinger Bands show increased volatility late into the session.
• RSI near neutral zone suggests potential for short-term consolidation.

The Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) pair opened at ¥42.81 and closed at ¥42.97 on 2025-11-08 (12:00 ET). The 24-hour session saw a high of ¥45.31 and a low of ¥42.79, with total volume of 378,715 units and a notional turnover of ¥16,843,795.5. The pair experienced a significant bearish reversal in the latter half of the session, ending near the lower end of the range.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the last six hours formed a bearish engulfing structure at ¥44.80 and ¥43.90, suggesting strong selling pressure. A doji was observed near ¥44.15 at the midpoint of the session, signaling potential indecision. Support levels appear to be forming at ¥43.50 and ¥42.90, while resistance is likely near ¥44.70 and ¥45.10 based on previous cluster zones and rejection points.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA (death cross) late in the session, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, reflecting a longer-term bullish bias. The price closed below the 20-period MA, confirming short-term bearish control.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after 2025-1108 08:00 ET, with the histogram showing increasing bearish divergence. RSI declined from overbought levels above 70 to mid-50s by 16:00 ET, suggesting the price may consolidate near ¥42.90–43.10 for now. Overbought conditions appeared earlier in the session, but sellers took control after a sharp correction from ¥45.31 to ¥43.16.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the second half of the session, indicating rising volatility. Price traded near the lower band from 02:00 to 16:00 ET, signaling oversold conditions. The widening of the bands suggests increased uncertainty or news activity may be influencing the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near ¥44.80 and ¥43.90, forming high-traffic zones. Turnover increased sharply from ¥43.16 to ¥43.90, suggesting heavy liquidation. The divergence between price and volume in the last 3 hours points to bearish exhaustion or a potential short-term bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing high at ¥45.31 and low at ¥42.79, the 38.2% level is at ¥44.15 and the 61.8% level is at ¥43.45. Price found support at the 61.8% level before breaking lower, indicating a potential bounce or consolidation in the ¥43.16–43.45 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish momentum and overbought RSI conditions, a short-term bearish bias is evident. A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a break below ¥43.45 (Fib 61.8%) with a stop just above ¥43.90 and a target near ¥42.79–42.90. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the current bearish structure and low RSI readings, provided volume continues to confirm the move.

A candlestick chart would illustrate the bearish engulfing patterns, key support/resistance levels, and volume spikes near ¥44.80 and ¥43.90. A line overlay showing the 20/50-period moving averages and RSI would highlight bearish divergence and potential overbought conditions.

A MACD histogram with a negative trend, a narrowing RSI near 50, and a diverging volume profile would visually confirm the bearish turn in sentiment. Bollinger Bands showing widening volatility would further support the view of increased uncertainty or news-driven activity.