Market Overview for Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price opened at 46.22 and closed at 44.94 after a 24-hour decline.
• A key support zone appears around 45.40–45.60, tested multiple times.
• Volume surged in the final 12 hours, with divergence in price and turnover.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) traded between 44.91 and 47.04 over the last 24 hours, closing at 44.94 from an opening of 46.22. Total volume reached 121,835.9, while turnover amounted to approximately 5,484,488 JPY (calculated from weighted average of amount * price).

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish bias, with a bearish engulfing pattern emerging in the early morning hours. A key resistance at 46.50–46.57 was broken and retested as support, which now appears to have shifted to a potential floor. The 50-period moving average has dropped below the 20-period, confirming a short-term downtrend. On a daily time frame, the 200-day MA is a strong psychological level, currently untested but expected to play a role in near-term direction.

MACD turned negative early in the session, with a bearish crossover confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 in the final hours, suggesting oversold conditions, although this may reflect a false signal due to a prolonged decline. Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion, with price hovering near the lower band, indicating a possible continuation of the bearish move.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high (47.04) to the low (44.91) show 61.8% at around 45.49, a level that was tested twice. This could serve as a critical pivot point in the near term. Volume has increased in the final hours, with high turnover in the 05:00–06:00 ET range, though price has not confirmed a rebound, raising the risk of a breakdown below 45.40.

The RSI-based backtesting strategy highlights a critical concern regarding its applicability in current market conditions. The classic RSI 30/70 swing strategy showed a total return of -21.0%, with a maximum drawdown of 42.0%, indicating poor performance amid persistent downtrends. The low win rate of 17% and negative average trade (-1.1%) underscore a lack of reliability for this approach on XLMJPY. The frequent stop-outs and ineffective overbought/oversold signals suggest that the market is trending more strongly than the RSI-based signals can capture, particularly when oversold levels lead to further declines.

A potential refinement may include using an RSI period of 7 or 21 to better align with current volatility and avoid premature entries. Incorporating a trend filter, such as a 200-day moving average, could help in avoiding buy signals during strong bearish phases. Position sizing and dynamic stop-loss strategies may also enhance risk management in this volatile environment.