Market Overview for Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) — 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-11

• Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) experienced a sharp drop from ¥56.58 to ¥46.59 within a 3-hour period before a partial recovery.
• Volatility spiked significantly, with a 15-minute range of ¥10.55 observed at 21:15 ET.
• The RSI and MACD indicated bearish momentum throughout the session, with a potential oversold condition in the final hours.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the selloff, followed by a contraction during consolidation.
• Final 15 minutes saw a modest reversal with price closing near ¥50.07, supported by low-volume buying interest.

XLMJPY opened at ¥56.19 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥50.07 on 2025-10-11 at the same hour. The 24-hour range was ¥56.72 (high) to ¥28.30 (low). Total trading volume reached 1,409,216.8, while notional turnover was ¥49,663,873.60. The price experienced a sharp downward move over the course of the session, followed by a modest recovery in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The chart displayed a bearish continuation pattern during the sharp selloff from ¥56.58 to ¥46.59. A large bearish engulfing pattern was evident at 19:30 ET, followed by a hammer-like structure at 21:30 ET. The subsequent move to ¥50.07 showed signs of a possible short-term support forming in the ¥49.29–¥50.16 range. A bearish divergence between price and volume was observed during the initial selloff, suggesting weak conviction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a steep downward slope, confirming the bearish bias. The 50-period moving average crossed below the 100-period and 200-period moving averages during the selloff, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The price closed above the 50-period moving average on the daily chart, suggesting a potential short-term rebound may be in play.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line was negative throughout the session, with a bearish crossover occurring at 19:30 ET. The RSI dipped into oversold territory in the final hours, reaching the 30 level, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, the RSI failed to show bullish divergence with price during the recovery, indicating limited buying pressure. A reversal confirmation may be needed to validate a sustained upward move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded rapidly during the selloff from ¥56.58 to ¥46.59, indicating increased volatility. The price then consolidated near the lower band, forming a potential support zone. The contraction of the bands in the final 3 hours suggests a possible reversal or sideways movement ahead. The closing candle of ¥50.07 fell within the band's range, but close to the upper end, indicating limited bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, peaking at 275,335 at 21:30 ET, confirming the bearish move. However, volume during the recovery phase was muted, suggesting limited conviction behind the bounce. Notional turnover also mirrored the volume trend, with a sharp decline during the last 4 hours of the session. The lack of volume during the recovery indicates the move may be short-lived.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the swing high of ¥56.72 and low of ¥46.59, the 38.2% retracement level was at ¥51.45, while the 61.8% retracement level was at ¥50.49. The current price of ¥50.07 is near the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a potential support zone. A break below this level could target the 78.6% retracement at ¥48.90. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent swing is at ¥51.66, which could act as a resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI in the final 15 minutes, a backtest strategy could involve entering a short position at ¥50.32 with a stop-loss above ¥50.53 and a target at ¥49.29. This aligns with the Fibonacci support levels and the consolidation phase. A long position may also be considered at the 61.8% retracement with a stop-loss below ¥49.0 and a target of ¥50.16. This strategy would need to be tested with historical data from similar price behaviors to assess profitability and risk.