Market Overview for Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) on 2025-10-27

• XLMJPY declined from 51.13 to 49.87 over 24 hours amid elevated turnover.
• Key support tested at 50.30-50.15, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming after a sharp drop.
• Volatility expanded early in the session but has since compressed near 49.87.
• RSI remains oversold near 30, signaling potential for a bounce but not a reversal.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, suggesting overextended bear momentum.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at 50.64 on 2025-10-26 12:00 ET and fell to a low of 49.87 by 2025-10-27 12:00 ET, closing at 49.87. The pair reached a high of 51.13 during the session, marking a broad range of 1.26. Total volume stood at 225,010.0 units, and notional turnover reached 11,019,085.0 JPY. Price action suggests bearish momentum has taken hold after a sharp selloff.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:45–20:00 ET as price gapped lower from 50.12 to 49.84. This pattern is typically a strong short-term bear signal. Key support levels emerged at 50.30–50.15 and 50.00–49.85, both of which were tested and broken. A notable doji appeared near 49.89 at 09:45–10:00 ET, suggesting potential consolidation or a reversal in the near term. Resistance remains strong at 50.75–51.13, which has capped prior bullish attempts.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period SMAs are both trending downward, confirming the bearish bias. Price remains below both, with the 50 SMA currently around 50.50, reinforcing the bearish structure. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs are in a downtrend, with the 50-day MA at approximately 51.00. This suggests that XLMJPY is still under pressure relative to its longer-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remains in negative territory, with a bearish crossover visible on the 15-minute chart after 19:30 ET. RSI has entered the oversold zone (30–0), currently reading near 30, indicating that the recent selloff may have overextended. However, RSI remains below neutral and could remain in oversold territory for some time. A potential bounce might be expected if RSI crosses above 30 with a bullish divergence in price and RSI, but no such divergence is currently visible.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened early in the session, reflecting heightened volatility around 20:00–23:00 ET. Price has since compressed near the lower band, with the 20-period standard deviation band currently at ~49.85–50.90. The current price is close to the lower band at 49.87, suggesting overextended bear momentum but not yet a signal for reversal. A break below 49.65 could trigger a further contraction into the 49.30–49.40 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 22:15–22:30 ET period, reaching 4,085.8 units, coinciding with the high of 50.71. This suggests increased participation before the reversal. Turnover also surged in the 02:15–02:30 ET and 05:30–05:45 ET windows, indicating active trading during key bearish pivots. Price and volume appear to be in alignment, with volume increasing during significant price declines, offering confirmation of bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 51.13 to 49.84, key retracement levels lie at 50.60 (38.2%), 50.40 (50.0%), and 50.15 (61.8%). Price has tested the 50.15 level and is currently consolidating near 49.87, below the 61.8% level. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement sits at 50.75–50.80, with 50.15–50.20 marking the 61.8% level. A break below 49.65 would test deeper Fibonacci levels, potentially triggering more aggressive selling.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further test the bearish momentum observed, a short-entry strategy based on RSI-14 could be applied. Given that RSI-14 data for XLMJPY is not directly available, a proxy approach using XLM-USDT prices and converting to JPY via USDJPY FX rates is feasible. The strategy would open short positions when RSI ≥ 70 (overbought) and close when it falls back to 50 or below, capturing bearish exhaustion and retracement opportunities. A backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-27 would evaluate the viability of this approach across multiple market cycles, with performance metrics including win rate, average gain/loss, and drawdowns. Given the current RSI-14 proxy near 30 and the downtrend confirmed by moving averages, a long position might be more appropriate under this framework, but that would require a shift in the backtest parameters. Confirming the exact symbol or opting for a proxy will allow for a precise backtest and actionable insights.