Market Overview for Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) – 2025-10-03

• Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) traded in a tight range during the early session before surging to a 24-hour high of ¥60.66.
• Price then consolidated and drifted lower, closing near ¥59.49, just above a key support level.
• Volume spiked sharply during the midday rally but faded in the latter half, signaling mixed conviction.
• RSI and MACD showed a neutral profile, with no clear overbought or oversold signals.
• Bollinger Bands reflected moderate volatility, with the close just outside the lower band.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at ¥58.76 at 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-03 and reached an intraday high of ¥60.66. The pair closed at ¥59.49 at 12:00 ET the following day after fluctuating within a volatile range. Total volume over the 24-hour period amounted to 376,816.1 with a notional turnover of ¥22,900,021.95. The price action reflects a short-lived bullish breakout followed by a pullback, with key technical levels coming into play.

The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish engulfing pattern forming around ¥60.05–60.17, signaling potential reversal in a bullish trend. A doji appeared near ¥59.49–59.52, indicating indecision as the pair tested lower support levels. Short-term support and resistance levels are approximately at ¥59.45 (S1), ¥59.70 (R1), and ¥60.27 (R2). Price action suggests a potential consolidation phase, with a possible test of support at ¥59.45 if bearish momentum continues.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a neutral trend, with the 20-period slightly above the 50-period but not showing a clear crossover. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is slightly below the 200-period MA, suggesting a mixed medium-term outlook. MACD showed a shrinking bullish divergence mid-day before flipping to a negative trend, indicating a loss of momentum. RSI hovered around the 50–55 range, suggesting a lack of strong overbought or oversold conditions, but the potential for a bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the midday rally and then retracted, with the price closing just outside the lower band. This suggests a potential mean reversion scenario if the pair fails to break above ¥60.27. Volatility appears to be moderating, which could signal a period of consolidation. The price remains within the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on a recent swing from ¥59.45 to ¥60.66, indicating a possible area of interest for traders expecting a continuation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could focus on capturing short-term volatility in the range between ¥59.45 and ¥60.66. Using a 15-minute timeframe, a potential approach involves entering long positions when the price crosses above the 20-period moving average and exits when RSI hits 60. Conversely, a short trade could be triggered when the price breaks below the 50-period moving average and RSI drops below 40. The Bollinger Band squeeze observed earlier in the session could also be used as a signal for entering trades with tighter stops and targets based on the width of the bands at that time.