Market Overview: Stellar (XLMUSD) — 2025-09-04

• Stellar (XLMUSD) declined ~1.9% over 24 hours, closing at 0.3576 from an open of 0.3662.
• A significant bearish breakdown occurred after 04:15 ET, with price dropping from 0.3624 to 0.3585 on heavy volume.
• Volatility expanded in the early morning hours, with a low of 0.3522 on 15:15 ET and a 0.3662 high.
• Volume spiked during key price levels at 17:00 ET and 04:15 ET, signaling potential reversals or breakdowns.
• RSI approached oversold territory near 0.3522, while MACD remained bearish and in negative territory.

Stellar (XLMUSD) opened at 0.3662 on 2025-09-03 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3576 on 2025-09-04 12:00 ET. During the 24-hour period, the price reached a high of 0.3662 and a low of 0.3522. Total traded volume was approximately 21,531.0 XLM, with a notional turnover of roughly $6,852.00 USD. The price action revealed a bearish bias, especially after the early morning pullback and afternoon bearish rejection at 0.3598.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed clear bearish continuation, with a breakdown below key support at 0.3630 followed by a sharp drop to 0.3585. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged on the 04:15 ET 15-minute candle, where price opened at 0.3624 and closed at 0.3585. This signaled a shift in momentum. A potential short-term support appears at the 0.3576–0.3522 range, with a 61.8% Fibonacci level near 0.3557 acting as a probable retest level if a bounce occurs.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period SMAs were closely aligned, trending downward as bearish pressure increased. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA levels (not directly calculable from the provided 15-minute data) likely formed a bearish crossover setup, reinforcing the downside bias seen in the last 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory throughout the period, with the histogram contracting after the 04:15 ET sell-off, signaling a potential slowdown in the bearish momentum. RSI approached oversold territory near 30% after the 15:15 ET 15-minute candle at 0.3522, indicating that further downward momentum might be limited without a sharp catalyst.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly from 04:15 to 09:00 ET, with price moving well below the lower Bollinger Band. A contraction in the bands occurred in the early hours of the morning, followed by a breakout. Price remained near the lower band, suggesting bearish exhaustion or consolidation ahead of a potential bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key breakdown moments: the 04:15 ET candle (700 XLM), 05:45 ET candle (1179 XLM), and 14:45 ET candle (2136 XLM). These spikes aligned with sharp price declines and could indicate strong institutional or algorithmic selling. Notional turnover confirmed these price moves, showing no divergence between volume and price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the recent swing high at 0.3662 to the low at 0.3522, Fibonacci levels suggest a 38.2% retrace at ~0.3593 and 61.8% at ~0.3557. Price briefly bounced at 0.3598 before resuming the decline, indicating these levels may serve as critical retracement targets or potential support clusters in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a rule-based strategy that targets short entries at Fibonacci 61.8% retracement levels with confirmation via bearish engulfing or pinbar patterns, and exits at key resistance levels (e.g., 0.3624–0.3631) or stop-loss at 0.3522, could align with the observed price behavior. The strategy would require a trailing stop or take-profit rule to capture intraday volatility. The recent 04:15 ET candle provides a historical example of such a setup, where the pattern and volume confirmed a strong bearish signal. This approach may enhance risk management by filtering signals based on both price action and volume, while allowing for partial exits as momentum wanes.