Market Overview for Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT): October 6, 2025

• Price tested key support at $0.393–0.395 before rebounding strongly in the final hours.
• Momentum showed mixed signals, with RSI suggesting short-term oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded following a sharp breakout above $0.4005, with volume confirming the move.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 08:00–10:00 ET, supporting a short-term upward bias.
• Bollinger Bands contracted into the late evening, suggesting a potential breakout in progress.

Market Snapshot

Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) opened at $0.3989 on October 5 at 12:00 ET, reached a low of $0.3930, and closed at $0.4041 at 12:00 ET on October 6. The pair rallied 1.49% over the 24-hour period, supported by a volume surge to 40.7 million XLM, with total notional turnover hitting approximately $16.4 million.

Structure & Formations

The price structure revealed a clear short-term support cluster between $0.3930 and $0.3950, which held during early volatility before a decisive rebound. A bullish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart between 08:00–10:00 ET, confirming a shift in momentum. A bearish doji appeared at $0.4005 during the early hours, but it was quickly overruled as bullish pressure emerged. The price now appears to be forming a higher-low pattern, hinting at potential short-term continuation above $0.4020.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20 and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing a short-term bullish trend. The 50-period SMA is currently at $0.4012, providing a minor support reference. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at $0.3973, which now acts as a key support level for the broader trend. The 100- and 200-period SMAs are at $0.3954 and $0.3941, respectively, suggesting that a sustained close above these levels could confirm a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory just after 06:00 ET, signaling increasing bullish momentum. The histogram remains above zero, confirming sustained upward momentum. RSI reached oversold territory during the early hours at ~28 but has since rebounded to ~52, suggesting a possible reversal. The indicator appears to be aligning with price action, indicating that the rally could continue as long as RSI remains above 40.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted significantly during the late evening into the early hours, with price trading near the middle band. This consolidation phase was followed by a strong breakout above the upper band, confirming a shift in momentum. The current position of the price near the upper Bollinger Band suggests elevated volatility and a possible continuation pattern, provided the upper band remains intact above $0.4050.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged above 1 million XLM in the early morning, coinciding with the breakout above $0.4005. The rally from $0.3961 to $0.4041 was accompanied by a 40% increase in notional turnover, indicating strong institutional or large-cap participation. The divergence between price and volume has not yet emerged, suggesting that the move remains well-supported. Notably, volume spiked again in the late afternoon with a 15-minute candle printing 4.1 million XLM, a sign of renewed buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent swing from $0.3930 to $0.4041 aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci level, currently at $0.3989. The 38.2% level is at $0.3998, and the 50% level at $0.4006. The price has already cleared these levels, reinforcing the bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of a broader correction lies near $0.4030, which has already been tested but not confirmed as strong resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term trading strategy could involve entering long on a bullish engulfing pattern, with a stop loss placed below the previous swing low. This setup aligns with the 15-minute timeframe and appears to be supported by the RSI rebound and volume confirmation. The target for this setup would be the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.4041, with a trailing stop placed just below key support levels. A backtest over the past 30 days would provide insight into the win rate and risk-reward profile of this pattern, particularly in low-volatility environments.