Market Overview for Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-04

• XLMUSDT opened at $0.4065 and closed at $0.4030, with a high of $0.4136 and a low of $0.4011.
• Price action showed a bearish bias, with key resistance around $0.4080 and support at $0.4030.
• Volume surged during the initial bearish breakdown, confirming the sell-off.
• RSI reached oversold territory, suggesting potential for short-term buying interest.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with price breaking out of a consolidation phase.

XLMUSDT opened at $0.4065 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.4030 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.4136 and a low of $0.4011. The pair saw a total trading volume of approximately 31,549,864.0 XLM and a notional turnover of $12,371,948.00 during the 24-hour window.

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish bias, with price breaking down from a consolidation range around $0.4100. Notable support levels were identified at $0.4030 and $0.4011, while resistance is forming near $0.4080. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the early part of the session, confirming the breakdown in price.

On the moving averages, the 20 and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart are bearishly aligned, with the price currently below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is crossing below the 100-period SMA, reinforcing a bearish bias over the medium-term horizon.

The RSI (14) reached an oversold level near 30 by the close of the session, indicating a potential short-term buying opportunity. However, MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram, suggesting that momentum is still on the downside. Bollinger Bands show that the price has expanded out of the upper band during the breakout and is now consolidating near the lower band, which aligns with the oversold RSI.

Volume surged significantly during the bearish breakdown, with the largest single 15-minute volume spike occurring at $0.4086 → $0.4080. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the bearish move. However, volume has since declined, and price has not yet confirmed a new breakout above $0.4080, which could lead to further testing of the $0.4030 level.

Fibonacci retracements on the most recent 15-minute swing (from $0.4136 to $0.4011) show key levels at $0.4075 (38.2%) and $0.4056 (61.8%). The price appears to have bounced from the 61.8% level, indicating a potential area of interest for short-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes entering a short position when the price breaks below the 50-period SMA and RSI crosses into overbought territory (70), with a stop-loss placed above the 20-period SMA. The target exit would be either when the RSI reaches oversold levels (30) or when the price breaks back above the 50-period SMA. This approach aligns with the bearish signals seen on the 15-minute chart, where the price has already broken below key moving averages and RSI has entered oversold territory, potentially offering a favorable risk-reward entry point.