Market Overview for Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) - 2025-09-26

• Price declines from 0.3618 to 0.3505 amid bearish momentum.
• Key support seen at 0.3500 with resistance around 0.3610–0.3618.
• Volatility rises mid-day, with volume surging to 3.43 million.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening bullish sentiment and bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands expand after mid-day selloff, suggesting increased uncertainty.

The Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) pair opened at 0.3618 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.3618 before closing at 0.3505 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The price dropped to a 24-hour low of 0.3467 during the selloff. Total traded volume for the 24-hour period was 34,301,370, with a notional turnover (amount) of 70.

The 15-minute chart reveals a strong bearish bias, as the price action formed multiple bearish candlesticks, including a long lower wick in the early part of the session and a deep-bodied bearish candle at 17:30 ET. Key support levels appear to be forming at the 0.3500–0.3467 range, with prior resistance levels at 0.3610 and 0.3618 becoming possible overhead hurdles. A potential bullish reversal pattern may develop if the price stabilizes and retests these levels with higher volume.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a clear bearish crossover, with the 20-period line dipping below the 50-period line. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMAs are all aligned in a downtrend, reinforcing the bearish bias. This setup suggests continued selling pressure unless the price reclaims the 0.3618 level with strong volume.

The RSI is currently in oversold territory near 25, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, but the momentum is weak and bearish. MACD is negative with a bearish divergence, indicating that while the price has made higher lows, the MACD has not, which points to further downside. Bollinger Bands have expanded sharply following the sell-off, reflecting increased volatility. The price is now near the lower band, which may offer short-term support if the selloff abates.

The price may test the 0.3500–0.3467 support zone over the next 24 hours. A retest of this level with higher volume could signal a potential reversal, while a breakdown below 0.3467 could lead to a more aggressive decline toward 0.3400. Investors should watch for confirmation of a bullish reversal pattern at key support levels and avoid overexposure due to ongoing volatility.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this pair could involve entering a short position when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed just above the most recent swing high. A long entry could be triggered when the RSI dips into oversold territory (below 30) and the price shows a bullish reversal pattern at key support levels. A trailing stop could follow the price to capture potential bounces. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the current bearish momentum while managing risk through clear entry and exit rules.