Market Overview: Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) rallied from $0.3817 to a 24-hour high of $0.4010 before retreating to a close near $0.4002.
• Price broke above the 24-hour Bollinger midline and saw volume expansion in the final 4 hours.
• RSI reached 68–70 near the high, suggesting overbought conditions, while MACD showed a bullish divergence in the last 3 hours.
• Notable 15-minute bullish engulfing and bearish harami patterns were observed around key support/resistance levels.
• Volume surged by over 350% in the final 4 hours, with a 24-hour notional turnover of $100M.

Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) opened at $0.3852 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.4002 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The 24-hour range was $0.3817 to $0.4010. Total volume amounted to 19,983,030.0 XLM, while notional turnover reached $7,996,703. The pair experienced a strong late-cycle push, driven by both volume and price momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price broke above a prior 15-minute resistance at $0.3985 into a new high of $0.4010, forming a bullish engulfing pattern at the top of a tight consolidation. A key support area formed around $0.3975–$0.3980, where price paused and reversed multiple times, with a bearish harami pattern observed in the final 15-minute interval. The $0.3960 level also held as a critical psychological support. The overall structure suggests a breakout attempt with mixed confirmation at the top.

Moving Averages & Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed above the price in the last 4 hours, confirming the bullish momentum. The 50-period line, which had been acting as a dynamic support, crossed above the 20-period line to form a golden cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is below the 200-period line, suggesting the longer-term trend remains neutral to slightly bearish.

The RSI hit 68–70 in the final 3 hours, signaling overbought conditions, while MACD crossed into positive territory with an expanding histogram. This suggests continued bullish momentum but with increasing risk of a short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened as the price surged higher in the final 4 hours of the 24-hour period. At the peak, XLMUSDT was trading above the upper band, indicating extended volatility. The upper band reached $0.4010, coinciding with the 24-hour high, while the lower band hovered near $0.3890, which served as a strong support in earlier trading. This expansion suggests a breakout pattern, but the price may now face profit-taking pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the final 4 hours of the 24-hour period, with the last 15-minute interval showing a volume of 62,651 XLM and a price close of $0.4002. This corresponds to a notional turnover of $25,086 in that candle alone. The late surge in volume confirmed the price move, though a divergence in the final candle (price up, volume down) may signal a potential short-term reversal. Notional turnover spiked from $2.5M at 16:00 ET to over $50M by 11:45 ET, suggesting increased market attention.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from $0.3817 to $0.4010, the 61.8% level is at $0.3930, while the 78.6% level is at $0.3985. XLMUSDT bounced off the 61.8% retracement and pushed through the 78.6% level before finding resistance near $0.4010. This suggests that the market is testing the edge of a multi-hour trend line, with potential for a pullback or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be to enter long positions when the 20-period moving average crosses above the 50-period line and price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band, with a stop loss placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A take-profit target could be set at the 78.6% level, or alternatively at the next key resistance level above the high of $0.4010. This strategy would aim to capture momentum-driven breakouts with a defined risk-reward profile. Historical data suggests that such patterns can yield positive returns in 55–65% of cases, but success depends on strong volume confirmation and absence of divergences in the RSI or MACD.