Market Overview for Stellar/Tether USDt (XLMUSDT)

• XLM/USDT fell 1.3% over 24 hours, closing near intraday lows as bearish momentum took hold.
• Volume remained relatively stable, with no major divergence between price and turnover.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term support near 0.3555.
• A key 0.3600–0.3605 resistance cluster failed to hold, signaling a possible continuation of the decline.
• Volatility expanded in late ET hours, with price breaking below a 20-period moving average.

Stellar/Tether USDt (XLMUSDT) opened at 0.3611 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.3624 and a low of 0.3555 before closing at 0.3566 on 2025-09-06 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 28,705,606.0 XLM, and notional turnover stood at approximately $10,364,557.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the last 24 hours shows a bearish bias, marked by several notable patterns. A clear breakdown occurred below the key 0.3600–0.3605 resistance zone, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.3601–0.3598. A long lower shadow at 0.3596–0.3580 indicates rejection near 0.3580–0.3585. A doji appeared near 0.3566–0.3565, suggesting potential short-term indecision or a support test at 0.3560–0.3565.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line in late ET hours, forming a bearish crossover. The 50-period moving average on the daily chart also dipped below the 100-period line, reinforcing a broader downtrend. Price remains below all major moving averages, with no clear sign of short-term reversal.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the late ET hours, with both the line and signal trending downward. RSI fell into oversold territory (~25) near the closing range, indicating potential support at 0.3555–0.3560. While RSI suggests a possible short-term bounce, the overall bearish momentum remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price moved toward the lower Bollinger Band, confirming the bearish move. Price closed near the band bottom, suggesting a possible pullback or retest of 0.3560–0.3565. No contraction phases were observed during the 24-hour period, ruling out a strong reversal signal from volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained relatively stable throughout the 24-hour period, with the heaviest activity occurring between 0.3600–0.3570. Notional turnover increased slightly in the final hours, aligning with the bearish price move. No major divergence was observed between price and volume, suggesting a relatively uniform bearish consensus.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.3624–0.3555 swing, price found support at the 61.8% level (0.3570) and then at the 50% level (0.3590). The 38.2% level at 0.3585 failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 0.3555 low may act as a potential stop-loss level for short positions.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using a 20/50-period moving average crossover on the 15-minute chart to capture short-term bearish momentum. A sell signal would trigger when the 20-period line crosses below the 50-period line, with a stop-loss placed at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.3585). A take-profit target could be placed at the 61.8% level (0.3570) or lower, depending on risk preference. The RSI entering oversold territory may serve as a dynamic exit condition for those seeking to reduce risk. This strategy would require filtering for volume confirmation and would be most effective in a trending market with consistent momentum.