Market Overview for Steem/Tether (STEEMUSDT) – October 7, 2025

• Steem/Tether (STEEMUSDT) ended the day with a bearish close amid declining momentum and oversold RSI.
• Price tested multiple support levels, with a sharp drop below 0.1230 and a low of 0.1185 signaling increasing bear pressure.
• Volatility spiked in late trading hours, with a 5.7% drop in price but uneven volume divergence in the final hours.
• Bollinger Bands signaled a period of contraction early, followed by a sharp expansion as bearish momentum broke through lower bounds.
• Key Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.1214 and 0.1188 appear to have acted as strong bear triggers late in the session.

Steem/Tether (STEEMUSDT) opened at 0.1247 on October 6 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1191 on October 7 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.1255 and a low of 0.1185. Total 24-hour trading volume was 1,542,764.3 STEEM, while notional turnover stood at $189,137. The pair appears to have entered a bearish phase, marked by a breakdown below key support and a sharp selloff in the 14:00–15:00 ET window.

The price structure over the past 24 hours suggests a breakdown in sentiment, with key support levels at 0.1230 and 0.1214 being pierced decisively. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.1231–0.1221 and was followed by a doji at 0.1204–0.1204, signaling indecision after a sharp drop. Resistance at 0.1255 was retested early, but could not hold. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly, with the 50SMA acting as a resistance-turned-breakout point.

RSI moved into oversold territory (below 30) after 14:00 ET, while MACD signaled bearish divergence with a negative histogram expansion. Bollinger Bands displayed a narrow contraction early in the session, followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke through the lower band below 0.1200. A 20-period Bollinger Band breakout may signal a continuation of the bearish move, though it remains unconfirmed.

Volume spiked during the breakdown phase, especially around the 0.1200 and 0.1190 levels, but failed to confirm a strong bearish reversal, as notional turnover dipped in the final hours. Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.1214 and 0.1188 acted as significant triggers for sellers. The daily 50SMA (0.1245) and 100SMA (0.1232) remain above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis
Based on the observed structure, a potential backtesting strategy could be designed using the breakdown below 0.1230 as a trigger. A sell entry would be triggered with a stop just above 0.1245 and a target at 0.1170, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent upward swing. This could be enhanced with a MACD crossover below the signal line and RSI below 30 as confirmation. A trailing stop could be used once the price retests and holds above 0.1190. This setup could be tested on previous bearish breakdowns on the 15-minute chart to evaluate win rate and risk-reward ratio.