Summary• Price consolidates near $0.0841 to $0.0855, with key support and resistance levels emerging from 15-min OHLC patterns.
• Volume spiked overnight, reaching a 24-hour high of $545k at 00:15 ET, followed by a sharp pullback.
• A bearish divergence in price and turnover emerged after 03:00 ET, suggesting possible exhaustion in the short-term uptrend.
Price Action and Key Levels
Steem/Tether (STEEMUSDT) opened at $0.0845 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0831 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-09. The 24-hour high was $0.0859, and the low was $0.0822, with total trading volume of ~3.8 million
and a notional turnover of ~$320k. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 00:15 and 00:30 ET as price dropped from $0.0855 to $0.0848, followed by a long lower shadow suggesting short-term uncertainty. A potential support zone is forming between $0.0833 and $0.0839, with prior resistance now acting as short-term support after the 03:00 ET reversal.
Volatility and Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction overnight from 00:30 to 03:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke below the lower band at $0.0833. Price has since remained within the bands, with volatility picking up around $0.0836–$0.0838. This suggests a possible short-term consolidation pattern forming after the morning’s sharp selloff.
Momentum and Indicators
MACD showed a bearish crossover overnight as the line dipped below the signal line, confirming the morning sell-off. RSI reached an oversold level of ~28 after the 03:00 ET low, but failed to reverse, indicating a lack of bullish conviction. A potential overbought signal at $0.0859 at 00:15 ET was quickly invalidated, suggesting weak
in the short-term bullish phase.
Volume and Turnover Dynamics
Volume surged at 00:15 ET with a $545k turnover but sharply declined afterward, indicating a potential distribution phase. The afternoon and evening sessions saw a steady but moderate increase in volume, with a key divergence forming between rising price and falling turnover after 03:00 ET, a red flag for potential bearish continuation.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Applying Fibonacci to the 0.0822–0.0859 move, key retracement levels include 38.2% at $0.0842 and 61.8% at $0.0838. Price bounced off the 61.8% level multiple times in the last four hours, suggesting it could act as a short-term floor. Traders may watch for a break below $0.0833 as a potential entry into a deeper correction.
Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-14 backtesting strategy aims to identify potential entry and exit points based on overbought and oversold conditions. Given the current price action and RSI behavior, a strategy that enters long on RSI-14 falling below 30 and exits when it crosses above 70 would have triggered a short-term buy signal at $0.0833–$0.0835 in the last 24 hours. However, the failure to retrace above the 38.2% level suggests a possible reversal or continuation depending on volume confirmation. Historical data would need to be tested from 2022–2025 to determine its effectiveness on this pair.
Forward-Looking Perspective
While short-term volatility remains moderate, the lack of a strong bullish follow-through after the 03:00 ET reversal suggests a continuation of the downward bias could be likely in the next 24 hours. Investors may watch for a retest of $0.0833 and volume confirmation to assess the strength of any potential bounce.
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