Market Overview for Steem/Tether (STEEMUSDT) – 2025-09-22

• STEEMUSDT closed at 0.1212, down 5.86% from 0.128 after hitting a 24-hour high of 0.1309 and low of 0.121.
• Price spent much of the session below the 20-period MA on the 15-min chart, with bearish momentum evident in RSI and MACD.
• Volatility expanded mid-day as STEEM dropped to 0.128, but a sharp sell-off after 00:30 ET pushed price to 0.123 and below.
• Volume spiked after 00:30 ET with 1.45M STEEM traded in one candle, coinciding with a sharp 0.128 → 0.123 decline.
• Key support at 0.121 tested and held, but signs of exhaustion suggest a potential 0.119–0.120 floor ahead.

Steem/Tether (STEEMUSDT) opened at 0.128 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1212 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, after reaching a high of 0.1309 and a low of 0.121. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 4.44M STEEM, with a notional turnover of approximately $557,565, reflecting heightened activity and bearish sentiment.

The 15-minute chart reveals a structurally bearish setup, with price failing to hold above key moving averages. The 20-period MA, currently at ~0.125, acted as a resistance level during the early session before the price decisively broke below it. A larger bearish signal came in the form of a hanging man candle and a large bearish engulfing pattern at 00:30 ET, confirming the breakdown from consolidation. The 50-period MA at ~0.127 is now a potential overhead ceiling as the pair tests critical support levels.

MACD turned negative early on, with a bearish crossover and a shrinking histogram suggesting momentum is fading to the downside. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 near 06:15 ET but failed to trigger a rebound, signaling a lack of buying interest. Bollinger Bands expanded during the early morning sell-off, indicating rising volatility, while the price settled near the lower band, suggesting short-term exhaustion. However, given the depth of the move, a retest of the 0.121–0.120 range remains likely.

Volume spiked sharply in the 00:30–00:45 ET period, coinciding with a large red candle that erased the prior day’s gains. Turnover reached ~$176,000 in that hour, with no corresponding price bounce afterward, reinforcing the bearish narrative. Fibonacci retracements applied to the 0.1309–0.121 swing suggest potential support at 0.123 (38.2%) and 0.122 (61.8%), both of which were tested during the session. The breakdown of the 0.122 level after 09:00 ET suggests further downward bias into the lower range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering short positions on bearish engulfing patterns and hanging man formations, particularly when confirmed by a breakdown below key moving averages and accompanied by high volume. The recent bearish engulfing pattern at 00:30 ET, coupled with a breakdown from the 50-period MA and a spike in volume, aligns closely with this setup. A stop-loss above the 0.127–0.128 resistance zone and a target at 0.119–0.120 would encapsulate the high-probability range for this strategy. A successful execution would capitalize on the confirmed bearish momentum and exhaustion seen in the RSI and MACD metrics.