Market Overview for Starknet/Tether (STRKUSDT) – October 3, 2025

• STRKUSDT declined from 0.1566 to 0.1440 amid bearish divergence between price and volume.
• RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, while MACD turned bearish in late hours.
• Volatility expanded during the drop, with Bollinger Bands widening from 0.0015 to 0.0055.
• A key support at 0.1452 was tested twice, failing to hold before further declines.
• Notional turnover reached $5.2M at the peak selloff, signaling increased bearish sentiment.

The 24-hour candle for STRKUSDT opened at 0.1539 on October 2, 2025, hit a high of 0.1566, and closed at 0.1470 at 12:00 ET on October 3. Total volume reached 17.2 million, with a notional turnover of $2.6 million, showing heightened selling pressure in the latter half of the day. A distinct bearish trend emerged, marked by a breakdown from key resistance levels and increasing bearish momentum.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart reveal a sequence of bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow doji at 0.1485, indicating rejection of higher prices. Key resistance levels failed at 0.1535 and 0.1495, while support at 0.1452 was briefly tested but not confirmed. A potential continuation of the downtrend may be signaled if 0.1440 is not breached.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price closing below the 20- and 50-period SMAs, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period EMAs remain untested as STRKUSDT has yet to retest the 0.1500 level. The 100-period EMA currently sits at 0.1495, a potential minor support or resistance if the trend reverses.

MACD turned bearish in the final 12 hours, with the histogram shrinking and the line crossing below the signal line, signaling fading bullish momentum. RSI dropped below 30, confirming an oversold condition, though without immediate signs of a reversal. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, indicating rising volatility. The price closed near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish bias.

The price action shows a divergence between falling prices and relatively stable volume in the last six hours, which may hint at potential exhaustion in the bearish move. However, total notional turnover increased sharply during the decline, suggesting strong conviction in the sell-side. Fibonacci retracements on the 0.1566–0.1440 swing show 0.1452 (38.2%) and 0.1436 (61.8%) as key levels to monitor for a potential bounce or continuation of the downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis
The decline in STRKUSDT appears to align with a mean-reversion strategy based on RSI oversold conditions and Bollinger Band compression. A potential backtest could use a long entry at the close of the candle when RSI < 30 and price touches the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop-loss just below the recent swing low and a target at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level (38.2% at 0.1452). This approach could benefit from the volatility seen during the 24-hour window and the potential for a rebound from oversold conditions.