Market Overview: Starknet/Tether (STRKUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-09)

• Starknet/Tether (STRKUSDT) dropped 5.6% over 24 hours, closing at 0.1564 after a sharp sell-off.
• Price broke key support levels and tested a 15-minute Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.
• Volume spiked during the afternoon sell-off but failed to confirm bullish follow-through.
• RSI and MACD both showed bearish momentum with potential overbought divergence earlier.
• Volatility expanded during the 15-hour bear phase, with price consolidating near 0.1564–0.1572.

Starknet/Tether (STRKUSDT) opened at 0.1609 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.1679 before dropping to a 24-hour low of 0.1521. The pair closed at 0.1564 on October 9 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume amounted to 115,710,405.22 STRK, with a notional turnover of $18,665,100. The price action has shown a clear bearish bias over the past 24 hours, with strong selling pressure evident after 17:30 ET.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a key bearish breakout from a short-term resistance cluster between 0.1640–0.1645, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 17:30 ET. A series of bearish harami patterns followed as the price consolidated into a descending channel. A potential support level appears to form at the 0.1563–0.1571 range, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 0.1521–0.1641 swing. A morning doji at 04:45 ET and a late consolidation doji at 11:45 ET indicate potential indecision and a possible short-term reversal or consolidation phase ahead.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 15-hour sell-off, from 17:30 ET to 08:45 ET, with price trading well below the 2σ lower band during the 0.1521 low. The contraction phase resumed at 09:15 ET, and price remains near the upper end of the narrowing band, suggesting potential for a break or false move depending on volume confirmation. Volatility remains elevated by recent standards, as seen by the high range 15-minute candles during the sell-off.

Volume and Turnover

The highest 15-minute volume spike occurred at 17:30 ET (1.44 million STRK) as the price moved from 0.1645 to 0.1666 in a bearish engulfing candle. A second spike at 23:15 ET (788,193 STRK) coincided with a breakdown from 0.1617–0.1629. However, the afternoon sell-off (17:30–02:45 ET) saw increasing turnover without a proportional rise in volume, suggesting potential exhaustion in the bearish bias. Price and turnover appear to be diverging, with turnover peaking at 0.1521 while price continued to stabilize in the 0.1564–0.1572 range.

MACD and RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover at 17:45 ET and remained negative for 10 hours, with a mild bullish divergence noted at 04:15–05:15 ET. RSI dropped to 28 at 02:45 ET, hitting oversold territory, but failed to generate a strong reversal candle. A 4-hour RSI divergence was evident between 18:45–01:45 ET, which did not lead to a strong bounce. The overall momentum remains bearish, but signs of a potential short-term bounce may emerge if the 0.1563–0.1571 range holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy under consideration involves a mean-reversion approach using a 15-minute RSI (14) and Bollinger Bands (20-period, 2σ). The strategy triggers a short position when RSI drops below 30 and price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop-loss placed at the 15-minute high of the preceding bullish candle. The 15-minute candle pattern analysis suggests that this strategy could have captured a significant portion of the 17:30–02:45 ET sell-off, particularly at the 0.1632–0.1645 level. A trailing stop based on the 15-minute Fibonacci 50% level (0.1584–0.1613) could have optimized returns while limiting downside exposure. The recent volume divergence and RSI readings suggest the strategy might also benefit from a position sizing filter that reduces exposure during consolidation phases.