Market Overview for Stacks/Tether (STXUSDT)

• Price declined from $0.701 to $0.683, with key resistance at $0.695 and support near $0.685.
• Volatility spiked in the early hours of ET as price dropped below the 20-period moving average.
• RSI showed oversold conditions briefly in the morning, indicating potential for short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Band contraction was observed in the early morning, followed by a sharp expansion.
• Volume surged during the late ET sell-off, confirming bearish momentum.

Stacks/Tether (STXUSDT) opened at $0.694 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of $0.701 and a low of $0.683 before closing at $0.683 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,749,364.6 STX with a notional turnover of approximately $1,212,081.50.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure reveals a strong bearish bias over the 24-hour period, particularly in the early morning hours when price broke below the 20-period moving average. A large bearish candle formed around 01:00–02:00 ET, with a high of $0.699 and a low of $0.684. This candle appears to confirm a breakdown of prior consolidation. Key support levels are forming near $0.685, while resistance remains intact at $0.695–$0.698. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern at $0.700 and a long lower shadow at $0.685, suggesting rejection of lower levels.

Support & Resistance

Key support levels to watch are at $0.685 and $0.680, while resistance is forming at $0.695 and $0.700. A break below $0.685 could extend the correction toward $0.677 or more.

Candlestick Patterns

A series of bearish continuation patterns, including a hanging man and a bearish spinning top, appeared during the 02:00–04:00 ET window. These patterns reinforce the bearish bias. A doji formed near $0.685, suggesting indecision at lower levels.

Moving Averages

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both been broken to the downside, confirming a shift to bearish momentum. The 50-period line now sits at approximately $0.692, while the 20-period line is at $0.690, placing the current price well below both. On a daily time frame, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are currently aligned above the price, reinforcing the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD has turned negative, with the histogram showing bearish divergence. The RSI reached oversold territory at $0.684 (~38 level), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI remains below 50, indicating the bearish trend is still in control. A strong bullish reversal in RSI would need to break above 55 for a meaningful shift in sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the early morning hours before a sharp expansion following the break of the 20-period MA. The current price is sitting near the lower band at $0.683–0.685, suggesting oversold conditions. A retest of the middle band (~$0.692) could provide a key inflection point.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late ET sell-off, particularly around 00:00–02:00 ET, with a large candle printing at $0.687 and $0.694. This aligns with the bearish breakdown. Notional turnover spiked to ~$105k in the early morning, showing strong participation. Price and turnover are in alignment, supporting the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent swing high at $0.701 and the low at $0.683, the 23.6% retracement sits at $0.697, 38.2% at $0.694, and 61.8% at $0.688. Price appears to have found initial support at the 61.8% level (~$0.688), but further support may be needed to hold above $0.685.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy in question leverages key Fibonacci retracement levels and RSI thresholds to generate buy and sell signals. When the RSI drops below 35 and price is near a 61.8% Fibonacci level, a long position is triggered. Conversely, a sell signal is generated when RSI crosses above 60 and price exceeds the 23.6% level. Over the past 24 hours, the strategy would have entered a sell signal near $0.690, aligning with the actual bearish breakdown. This strategy may provide useful signals in trending environments, though it could struggle during periods of consolidation or high volatility.