Market Overview: Stacks/Tether (STXUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• STXUSDT experienced a sharp 24-hour decline, dropping from 0.562 to 0.446 with heavy volume in early hours.
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the 21:00–21:15 ET candle, followed by a volatile breakdown to 0.313.
• Volatility expanded significantly in early hours, with Bollinger Bands widening from ~0.007 to ~0.18 range.
• RSI dropped to 21–25 levels, indicating oversold conditions, while volume confirmed the price drop with high notional turnover.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ~0.42 appears to be acting as a short-term support.

STXUSDT opened at 0.562 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at 0.446 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, with a 24-hour high of 0.565 and low of 0.201. Total trading volume reached 34,933,349.9 units, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $15,472,727.34. A sharp bearish breakdown occurred during the first half of the day.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure revealed a strong bearish bias with a key breakdown at 0.546 during the 19:15–19:30 ET window. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed at 01:00–01:15 ET as price gapped down to 0.433 from a high of 0.443. This was followed by a strong bearish trend until the 02:00–02:15 ET window where a bullish reversal attempt began. Notable support levels formed at 0.446 (38.2% retracement), 0.429 (50% retracement), and 0.423 (61.8% retracement). Resistance remains at 0.453 (swing high) and 0.459 (minor resistance).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.449) and 50-period MA (0.447) are closely aligned, suggesting a neutral-to-bearish short-term bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (0.552) is well above the 200-period MA (0.551), indicating a bearish crossover as price falls far below the 50 MA.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned sharply negative in the morning, with the histogram showing strong bearish divergence, confirming the price action. RSI fell to 21–25 levels during the morning selloff, suggesting oversold conditions. A slight RSI rebound to ~35 by late morning hints at possible near-term stabilisation, but without breaking back above 40, momentum remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically in the first half of the day, with the Bollinger Band width increasing from ~0.007 to ~0.18. Price traded at the lower band for much of the morning, especially between 01:00–03:00 ET, before forming a slight rebound. The bands remain wide, and price has yet to consolidate into a narrower range, suggesting uncertainty in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial breakdown phase (19:15–21:30 ET), peaking at 3,349,238.1 units and confirming the sharp price drop. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the highest turnover occurring at 0.313–0.312. Divergence between price and volume is minimal—volume has confirmed the bearish action across the day.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels have provided key levels of support and resistance. The 61.8% level at ~0.42 acted as a temporary floor, while the 50% level at 0.449 has held as a minor resistance. The 38.2% level at ~0.446 has been tested twice and holds significance for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish momentum and oversold RSI readings, a potential backtest strategy might involve a short entry at 0.446 with a stop loss at 0.453 (minor resistance), and a target at 0.420–0.415. This aligns with the 15-minute and daily chart breakdowns, MACD divergence, and Fibonacci retracement targets. A trailing stop loss could be considered if price stabilizes and forms a bullish reversal pattern, such as a hammer or morning star. Given the volatility and confirmation of volume and price action, this approach would seek to capture a continuation of the bearish trend with a defined risk.