Market Overview for Stacks/Tether (STXUSDT) on 2025-09-21

• Price declined from 0.666 to 0.653 over 24 hours, showing bearish momentum.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased uncertainty.
• Volume surged near 0.65 and 0.66, signaling key price clusters and possible support/resistance.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.66, reinforcing downward bias.

The Stacks/Tether (STXUSDT) pair opened at 0.665 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.653 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.668 and a low of 0.647 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 1,410,817.5, with notional turnover of approximately $890,135. The price trend showed a bearish bias, with several pullbacks and failed attempts to retest higher levels.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels formed at 0.65 and 0.647, as volume concentrated near these levels, and a bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.66, reinforcing the downward momentum. A doji near 0.654 signaled indecision and potential for a pullback. Resistance appears at 0.663 and 0.666, where the price previously failed to break through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100 and 200-period MAs, forming a bearish "death cross" formation. Price is trading below all three, indicating a stronger likelihood of further downside in the near term.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish divergence, suggesting continued pressure. RSI dipped below 30 for an extended period, entering oversold conditions. This could suggest a potential bounce or consolidation near support, though a sustained break below 0.65 would likely require a sharp bearish move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the session, indicating rising volatility. Price tested the upper band at 0.666 twice, failing to hold above, and later approached the lower band near 0.65, finding temporary support. This suggests increased uncertainty and a higher probability of sideways or range-bound trading near the 0.65–0.66 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near 0.65 and 0.66, with the largest single candle recording 175,519.6 volume at 0.655. Notional turnover also showed a significant increase during this period, aligning with price action and indicating strong conviction in the bearish move. No major divergence between volume and price was observed, suggesting consistent market behavior.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 0.666 to low of 0.647 indicated key levels at 0.656 (38.2%) and 0.651 (61.8%). Price tested both levels, with 0.651 acting as a strong support that held through multiple attempts. This suggests 0.651 is a critical level to watch for potential bounces or breakdowns.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on a breakout-based system that enters long when price closes above the 61.8% Fibonacci level and exits on a close below the 38.2% level. Conversely, a short entry is triggered on a close below the 38.2% level with an exit above the 61.8%. Using the 15-minute chart, this strategy would have generated several trades over the past 24 hours, particularly near the 0.651–0.656 range. The volume data suggests strong conviction in this range, validating the strategy’s assumptions. However, a false breakout remains a risk due to the choppy price action and low conviction in certain price levels.