Market Overview for ssv.network/Bitcoin (SSVBTC)

• Price declined from 4.228e-05 to 4.078e-05 over 24 hours.
• Volume spiked at 496.33 and 972.13 around 20:00–21:15 ET.
• RSI and MACD likely bearish after sustained selling pressure.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed earlier before expansion post 19:30 ET.
• No clear reversal patterns emerged, but Fibonacci 61.8% level tested.

The ssv.network/Bitcoin pair (SSVBTC) opened at 4.222e-05 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4.091e-05 on 2025-11-14 at the same hour. The 24-hour range was between 4.228e-05 (high) and 3.995e-05 (low). Total volume amounted to 4,685.26 across the period, with a notional turnover that followed the descending price trend, reflecting a bearish sentiment.

Price activity was characterized by a steady bearish momentum after a minor consolidation between 4.222e-05 and 4.228e-05 early in the session. A sharp decline began around 19:30 ET, reaching a low at 4.022e-05. The 15-minute chart shows a negative divergence between price and volume in the 19:30–22:30 ET window, indicating potential exhaustion in the short-term selloff.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below the price during the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages remain above current price levels, suggesting further downward potential if support is tested. RSI hovered near oversold levels by the end of the session, which may indicate a potential short-term rebound, but a confirmed reversal is still pending.

Bollinger Bands constricted early in the session before expanding post 19:30 ET, highlighting a period of heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting increased bearish momentum. Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% and 61.8% of the recent swing from 4.228e-05 to 3.995e-05 were tested but not held. The 61.8% level at ~4.066e-05 appears to have offered partial support.

The MACD line turned negative during the session and remained below the signal line, confirming the bearish trend. Divergences in RSI and volume suggest a potential short-term pause in the downward trend, but the broader technical backdrop remains bearish unless a strong reversal pattern emerges. Investors should monitor the 200-day SMA and key Fibonacci levels for potential support validation or breakdown confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical setup, a backtest strategy could focus on identifying key support levels and analyzing their effectiveness in triggering price reversals. A potential hypothesis might involve using the 200-day simple moving average as a dynamic support level. If price closes below the 200-SMA with high volume, this could be considered a bearish confirmation. Conversely, if the price rebounds off this level without breaking through, it may signal a short-term bounce.

To define the support event:

• Support Level Definition: 200-day SMA (daily chart)
• Trigger Rule: Price closes below or touches the 200-SMA
• Tolerance Band: ±1% around the 200-SMA value
• Minimum Days Between Events: 10 days to avoid clustering

Using this rule, historical performance data can be evaluated from January 1, 2022, to November 14, 2025, to measure the frequency and success of trades initiated at or near the 200-SMA. This approach aligns with the current bearish momentum and allows for a structured evaluation of support-based trading strategies in the context of SSVBTC.