Market Overview for ssv.network/Bitcoin (SSVBTC) on 2025-11-11

• Price formed a bullish reversal pattern at 4.409e-05 following a sharp 10.1% drop.
• RSI hit 27, indicating oversold conditions and potential short-term buying interest.
• Volatility expanded after midday ET, with volume surging to 2,049.02 at the 12:15 ET high.
• Bollinger Bands show price testing the lower band, suggesting possible reversion.
• MACD turned positive at 16:30 ET, signaling potential momentum shift.

The 24-hour session for ssv.network/Bitcoin (SSVBTC) opened at 4.49e-05 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 4.453e-05 by 12:00 ET. Prices reached a high of 4.788e-05 and a low of 4.39e-05, marking a range of 9.9% over the period. Total volume amounted to 14,198.01, with notional turnover reflecting increased activity amid a late-session rebound. The market appears to be consolidating near a key support level.

Over the last 24 hours, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a short-term bearish trend, with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period line in the early hours of 11-11, signaling a potential bearish crossover. However, by midday, the 20-period line began to ascend, hinting at a possible reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages remain in a bearish alignment, though the 100-period line is approaching the 50-period from below, indicating possible near-term flattening.

The RSI reached an oversold level of 27 near 05:30 ET, suggesting that the selloff may be nearing exhaustion. MACD turned positive at 16:30 ET after forming a bullish divergence, reinforcing the case for a short-term reversal. The 15-minute Bollinger Bands showed a contraction at 12:00 ET, followed by a significant expansion as prices broke below the lower band and rebounded. This expansion may signal increased volatility, though the price remains within the bands, suggesting that the move could be part of a larger consolidation phase.

Key support levels appear to be forming around 4.409e-05 and 4.39e-05, with the former acting as a strong barrier for further downside. Resistance is currently at 4.453e-05, where the price has stalled. A candlestick pattern resembling a bullish reversal formed at 4.409e-05, suggesting traders may be entering on dips. The Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent 4.788e-05 high to 4.39e-05 low suggest that the 61.8% level (~4.49e-05) could act as a psychological barrier for further upside.

Backtest Hypothesis

The entry condition for the backtesting strategy involves identifying a MACD bottom (bullish) divergence, typically seen near price lows, paired with RSI in oversold territory (RSI < 30). This combination historically signals a potential reversal in momentum and is often used to time entries into a rebound phase.

Given the recent 24-hour move, where RSI dipped to 27 while the MACD formed a bullish divergence at 16:30 ET, this would qualify as a potential entry signal under strategy A (MACD bottom divergence + RSI < 30). This rule appears more intuitive for a bearish-to-bullish reversal scenario, especially in a market like ssv.network/Bitcoin, which has shown strong mean-reversion tendencies.

Once confirmed, a backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11 can be constructed using this signal, applying standard exit rules such as take-profit at the next Fibonacci level or stop-loss at the nearest support. The results can then be evaluated for risk-adjusted returns, win rate, and maximum drawdown to assess the strategy’s viability in this market.