Market Overview for Spark/Tether (SPKUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• Spark/Tether (SPKUSDT) saw a 24-hour decline, closing at 0.051304 from an open of 0.05424
• Price fell through key support levels, with a 4.3% drop and a 5.1% range between high (0.057346) and low (0.051044)
• High volatility seen in late-night surge to 0.057346 followed by a sharp reversal
• RSI hit oversold territory, and volume spiked during the bearish reversal
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the sell-off, signaling increased uncertainty

15-Minute Chart Summary

Spark/Tether (SPKUSDT) opened at 0.05424 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.051304 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The pair hit a high of 0.057346 and a low of 0.051044 over the 24-hour period. Total volume for the period was 109,573,320, with a notional turnover of approximately $5,889,600.

The price action was marked by a sharp bearish reversal following a brief bullish attempt early in the evening. A large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 2025-10-03 22:30 ET (0.055619 → 0.054342) triggered a strong downward trend. A series of lower closes followed, with price finding resistance at previous support levels and failing to reclaim key psychological levels.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key support levels identified during the 24-hour period include 0.05200 (tested multiple times), 0.05140 (break point on 2025-10-04), and 0.05100 (final support on daily chart). Resistance levels at 0.05350 and 0.05400 were repeatedly rejected. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing candle at 22:30 ET and a doji near 0.053955, suggesting indecision and a possible trend reversal.

Technical Indicators

The RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30, indicating potential for a short-term rebound. MACD showed bearish divergence as the histogram declined while prices failed to close higher. Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, reflecting heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band at 0.051304, suggesting a possible near-term bounce.

Volume and Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the major downward move, especially at 22:30 ET, with 19.6 million SPK traded in that 15-minute window. However, subsequent volume declined, suggesting waning conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, confirming the bearish pressure was largely concentrated during the sharp decline.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing high of 0.057346 and the swing low of 0.051044, key retracement levels include:- 23.6% at 0.055546
- 38.2% at 0.054436
- 50.0% at 0.054195
- 61.8% at 0.052754

Price appears to be consolidating near the 61.8% level, which may offer a key short-term support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves using the 20-period EMA and RSI(14) as entry triggers. A short signal is generated when price crosses below the EMA and RSI falls below 30, with a stop placed at the recent swing high. A long signal is triggered when price crosses above the EMA and RSI rises above 70, with a stop at the recent swing low. Given the recent bearish divergence and RSI oversold condition, this strategy would have flagged a short entry at 0.054342. A trailing stop at 0.05300 would have captured the 15-minute drop to 0.051304. This suggests the strategy may have captured the recent downward move effectively.