Market Overview: SPACE ID/Bitcoin (IDBTC) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price opened at $1.18e-06 and closed at $9.7e-07, with a high of $1.22e-06 and low of $5.2e-07.
• Sharp sell-off occurred after 21:30 ET, dropping below key support at $9e-07.
• Volatility spiked sharply in the 15-minute timeframe from 21:30–22:00 ET.
• Total traded volume was ~1.13M, with ~$1.04 in turnover.
• MACD and RSI show bearish momentum and overextended short-term conditions.

SPACE ID/Bitcoin (IDBTC) opened at $1.18e-06 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $9.7e-07 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, within a 24-hour range of $1.22e-06 to $5.2e-07. Total volume for the period was approximately 1.13 million units, with notional turnover of ~$1.04. The pair experienced a sharp selloff following a large bearish candle on 21:30 ET, breaching key support levels and failing to rebound in the subsequent hours.

Structure and formations indicate that IDBTC encountered key resistance at $1.18e-06 and $1.19e-06 during the early part of the session, before a prolonged bearish move from 21:30–22:30 ET. A large bearish candle on 21:30 ET followed by a series of lower closes and wicks signal strong selling pressure. A bearish engulfing pattern was also formed at the 21:30 ET time window, confirming a reversal from recent bullish momentum. A potential support level is forming near $9e-06, which was tested multiple times in the latter half of the session.

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearish, with the 50-period SMA crossing below the 20-period SMA to indicate a shift in sentiment. The daily timeframe shows the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period SMAs all sloping downward, reinforcing a medium-term bearish bias. The MACD turned negative during the bearish leg, confirming the weakening momentum, while the RSI dipped below 30—suggesting oversold conditions but not necessarily a strong reversal signal due to the sustained decline.

Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during the selloff, with the price dropping sharply below the lower band. Volatility was elevated in the 21:30–22:30 ET window, indicating increased market uncertainty. Volume spiked during this period, particularly on the 21:30 ET candle, which had over 149,000 units traded. Notional turnover also surged during the same timeframe, confirming the price move. However, volume and price have since declined, indicating a potential exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 21:30–22:30 ET move show 61.8% at $8.8e-07, which may act as a potential short-term support. The 38.2% level at $9.5e-07 was tested once but failed to hold. If the price continues to fall, the 50% retracement level at $9.1e-07 may be next in line as a psychological threshold. These levels could act as key decision points for traders in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis: The backtesting strategy in question aims to exploit sharp selloffs by entering short positions at the confirmation of bearish engulfing patterns, with a stop above the 20-period SMA and a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the current setup, this strategy may have captured the 21:30 ET move effectively, with the 61.8% level at $8.8e-07 aligning with a potential profit target. The strategy appears most effective in high-volatility environments with clear trend exhaustion signals, such as those seen in the IDBTC 15-minute chart. Further testing in varied market conditions would be needed to assess robustness.