Market Overview: SOPHUSDT (Sophon/Tether) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-09-26

• SOPHUSDT dipped sharply from 0.02848 to 0.02758 before rebounding toward 0.0283.
• The 24-hour RSI hit oversold levels, suggesting potential short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion post 18:00 ET, indicating rising volatility.
• Volume surged in bearish 17:00–19:00 ET sessions but waned on the rebound.
• A bullish reversal pattern emerged after 20:00 ET, with a potential support at 0.0276.

Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of 0.0274–0.02848, opening at 0.02845 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET and closing at 0.02806 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 7.11 million SOPH, while turnover was approximately $194,345. The pair exhibited a sharp bearish thrust in mid-session followed by a tentative recovery.

Structure & Formations

Price tested a key support level at 0.02758, finding temporary support before reversing. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:30 ET, confirming a short-term trend reversal. Later, a bullish hammer and morning star pattern emerged at 20:30–21:15 ET, signaling potential buying interest at 0.0276–0.0278. Key resistances are at 0.02808 and 0.0283, with 0.02836 as a minor ceiling from the 8:30 AM spike.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA dipped below the 50-period MA, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is currently above the 100 and 200-period MAs, suggesting medium-term bearish bias. However, price has shown some separation from the 50 MA in the latter half of the day, hinting at potential exhaustion in the bearish move.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative around 17:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum, though it flattened in the afternoon. RSI dropped to 30 during the 18:00–20:00 session, entering oversold territory and hinting at a potential rebound. However, divergence between price and RSI in the 10:00–12:00 window suggests caution. Both indicators suggest a potential pause in downward momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after 18:00 ET as price moved outside the lower band, reaching a low of 0.02758. This expansion indicates increased bearish pressure and a possible consolidation phase as bands re-contract. Price is currently hovering near the upper band again, suggesting a potential test of key resistance levels in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume occurred during the 17:30–19:30 ET bearish phase, with over 5.5 million SOPH traded. Notional turnover surged during this time as well, confirming the bearish move. In contrast, the 20:00–24:00 rebound saw volume drop to ~3 million SOPH, though prices gained 2.5%. This divergence could signal a weak reversal or a continuation of bearish pressure in the next 24 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% level at 0.0279 and the 61.8% level at 0.0282 were tested multiple times. The 0.0276–0.0278 range, representing the 100% retracement of the 17:30–20:30 bear wave, acted as strong support, with price bouncing from this area. The 0.02835–0.0284 level may be the next critical retracement to watch for a possible bear trap or breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests a long bias when price closes above the 50-period MA and the RSI crosses above 30, confirming a potential short-term reversal. A short bias is triggered if RSI drops below 30 and the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA. During the 2025-09-25 20:30–21:15 window, these conditions aligned with a bullish setup, which was confirmed by a hammer pattern and a 1.6% rebound. If this pattern repeats, the strategy may yield a profitable long entry around 0.0278–0.0280. A stop-loss could be placed below 0.0276.