Market Overview for Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT)

Summary
• Price action on SOPHUSDT remained range-bound within a tight channel, with key support near 0.02281 and resistance at 0.02326.
• Volume increased significantly during the late New York session, suggesting potential accumulation or distribution.
• RSI remains in neutral territory, but overbought levels were temporarily reached during the early morning hours.

Opening at 0.02303 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET, SOPHUSDT reached a high of 0.02341 and a low of 0.02252 before closing at 0.02283 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 11,147,965.0, and total turnover reached 262,059.4 USDT.

Structure & Formations

Price remained in a tight range over the past 24 hours, with a noticeable bearish trend forming in the early hours of the session. A large bearish candle on 2025-11-08 at 19:30 ET marked a key high of 0.02341 before price retraced sharply lower. A potential bearish engulfing pattern emerged near the top of the range, which could signal further downward pressure. A doji at 0.02255 in the early morning hours suggests indecision and may mark a short-term pivot level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average appears to act as a dynamic resistance, with price failing to hold above it for extended periods. The 50-period MA is slightly lower, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, while the 50- and 100-period MAs are still relatively flat, the 200-period MA appears to offer a key support zone. Price remains below both 50- and 100-day MAs, indicating a bearish bias over the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line for most of the session, with a bearish crossover observed early in the morning. Histogram bars have been contracting slightly, suggesting a potential slowdown in the bearish momentum. RSI oscillated between 30 and 60 for the majority of the session, with brief excursions into overbought territory. This suggests a lack of strong momentum either direction, but the repeated testing of key levels may lead to a breakout in either direction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the afternoon and evening hours, with price moving from the upper band to the lower band. The Bollinger Band width increased significantly, indicating heightened market uncertainty. Price currently sits near the lower band, suggesting that the market may be oversold, though a rebound has yet to materialize with conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during a sharp sell-off between 19:30 ET and 20:30 ET, reaching a 24-hour high of 465,559.0. This was accompanied by a sharp drop in price, suggesting distribution or aggressive selling. Later in the session, volume tailed off as price stabilized near key support levels. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking during the same period as the volume spike, which supports the interpretation of aggressive selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 0.02341 and low of 0.02252 show key retracement levels at 0.02307 (38.2%) and 0.02279 (61.8%). Price has been bouncing near the 61.8% level, with a potential break below this level signaling a deeper correction. On the 15-minute timeframe, the 38.2% retracement of the most recent bullish move appears to have acted as resistance, reinforcing a near-term bearish outlook.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current price action and bearish momentum, a potential backtest strategy could focus on identifying bearish divergences in RSI while price remains within a descending channel. A short entry could be triggered when RSI reaches overbought levels and fails to retrace higher while price continues to make lower highs. A stop-loss could be placed above the 20-period moving average, with a take-profit at the next Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8% at 0.02279). This approach would align with the observed bearish bias and could be further validated using a confirmed RSI bearish divergence on the 15-minute chart.