Market Overview: Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) on 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price declined from 0.02247 to 0.02194, forming a bearish trend with key support at 0.02205.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, though MACD remains bearish with no clear bullish momentum.
• Volume spiked during the key selloff, confirming bearish bias, but divergence in turnover suggests caution.

Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) opened at 0.02247 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0226, a low of 0.02173, and closed at 0.02194 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 9,132,256.9, with a total turnover of $199,891.35.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period revealed a strong bearish bias, with a key support zone forming around 0.02205–0.02202. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 2025-11-11 at 20:00 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji at 2025-11-11 at 22:00 ET suggested indecision, but was followed by a sharp decline. A potential resistance level appears at 0.0222–0.02225, which the price has tested multiple times but failed to break above.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly sloped, with price trading below both. This suggests short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is below the 100 and 200-period lines, indicating a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD is in negative territory with a bearish crossover, reinforcing downward momentum. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory at times, suggesting a potential short-term bounce may be possible. However, the lack of sustained bullish MACD divergence indicates that the bearish trend may not yet be exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Price has spent much of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating low volatility and bearish bias. A notable contraction occurred around 2025-11-11 at 19:45 ET, followed by a sharp break to the downside, confirming the bearish breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the sharp decline at 2025-11-11 at 20:00 ET and 22:15 ET, confirming the bearish move. However, the divergence between the volume spike and the relatively modest price move in the final hours suggests fading bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 0.0226 (high) to 0.02173 (low), the 38.2% retracement is at 0.02223, and the 61.8% level is at 0.02201. Price appears to find immediate resistance near 0.02223 and may test the 61.8% level in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A simple RSI-based strategy, where long positions are entered when RSI < 30 and held for five days, has historically underperformed for SOPHUSDT since 2022. With a total return of -23.3% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.85, the strategy highlights the need for refinement. Adding a confirming momentum filter, such as a price crossover above a short-term moving average, or implementing stop-loss and take-profit levels, could help manage risk and improve performance. Testing alternative holding periods or dynamic exits—like closing positions when RSI returns above 40—may also be worth exploring.