Market Overview for Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) – 2025-10-18

• Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) closed near the 24-hour low, showing bearish continuation.
• Price action broke key support at 0.02175, confirming weak momentum.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, though divergence risks persist.
• Volatility contracted after midday, hinting at a potential reversal setup.
• Turnover spiked in the early hours, but volume failed to confirm bullish moves.

Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) opened at 0.02147 on October 17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.02237 on October 18 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended from a low of 0.02136 to a high of 0.02248. Total trading volume reached 15,064,650, while notional turnover stood at approximately $331,565. The session saw bearish consolidation in the first half, followed by a late rally driven by increased volume and price retesting of key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern with a series of lower highs and lower lows, especially between 16:00 and 20:00 ET. A key support level at 0.02175 was broken, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern. Later in the session, a bullish reversal pattern appeared near 0.02210, suggesting potential for a counter-trend bounce. A strong doji at 0.02225 also pointed to indecision among traders ahead of the final push higher.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20EMA and 50EMA in the final hours, indicating a short-term bullish shift. The 50EMA at 0.02209 served as a dynamic support, and the move above it signaled potential for further upward correction. Daily moving averages show the price remains below the 50DMA, suggesting medium-term bearish bias, though a rebound to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.02245 could test the 100DMA at 0.02230.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence in the morning, followed by a bullish crossover in the late hours, supporting the late rally. RSI moved into overbought territory (70+), though not for long, and later drifted back into a neutral range. This suggests the recent rally may lack sustainability unless volume and price action confirm further strength.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility remained subdued for most of the session, with price staying within the Bollinger Bands. A minor contraction occurred between 01:00 and 03:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion in the late hours. By the close, the price was positioned near the upper band, suggesting that the recent move could be part of a breakout pattern.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the late afternoon and into the early evening, particularly from 16:00 to 19:00 ET, but failed to sustain the rally beyond 0.02200. A volume spike occurred at the 0.02195 level, followed by a divergence between higher prices and lower volume. This suggests buyers are weakening, and a breakdown below 0.02175 could trigger further bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 24-hour move from 0.02136 to 0.02248, key retracement levels include 0.02199 (38.2%), 0.02216 (50%), and 0.02234 (61.8%). Price tested the 61.8% level multiple times, failing to close above it. The 0.02234 area appears to be a critical resistance level for the near term, and a confirmed breakout could signal a shift in short-term sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD divergence strategy proposed is well-suited for pairs like SOPHUSDT, which showed clear divergences and retests in the 24-hour window. The strategy hinges on identifying bearish and bullish divergences, which were observed in the morning and late hours of the session, respectively. Given SOPHUSDT’s high volatility and frequent retracements, a 3-day backtest from 2022 could provide valuable insights into the strategy’s robustness. The success of this approach would depend on confirming divergences with additional indicators, such as RSI and volume.