Market Overview for Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) drifted lower over 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• Momentum weakened with bearish divergence in RSI and MACD.
• Volatility expanded briefly before retreating toward lower bands.
• Volume spiked mid-session but failed to confirm a reversal.
• Key resistance appears to be forming near 0.02980–0.02990.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) opened at 0.0295, reached a high of 0.03007, and closed at 0.0291 at the same time, forming a bearish 24-hour candle. Total volume across 24 hours was 109,377,056. Total turnover (notional) amounted to 2,639.47 USDT. The price action reflected a prolonged bearish bias with limited countertrend resistance.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern on SOPHUSDT revealed a bearish continuation with a long lower wick and a strong close near the session low. Key support levels are forming around 0.02900–0.02910, with 0.02940 acting as a short-term resistance. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.03007, signaling a strong rejection of higher prices. A doji formed near 0.02916 at 02:00 ET, hinting at indecision in the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bearish divergence early in the session. The 50-period line has remained above the 20-period line since 16:00 ET–16:15 ET on 2025-10-03, forming a bearish "death cross" signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period lines are both moving downward, reinforcing the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD for SOPHUSDT entered negative territory after 16:00 ET and has remained bearish, with the signal line crossing the histogram in a bearish manner. The RSI dropped below 40 late in the session, indicating weakening momentum. A brief oversold condition was noted near 0.02910, but failed to spark a meaningful reversal, suggesting strong bearish control.

Bollinger Bands

Price has spent much of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, with a brief retest of the upper band at 0.03007. The 15-minute Bollinger Bands have expanded during key spikes in volume and retraced back toward the lower bound. The current price of 0.02910 is within the lower third of the daily bands, suggesting potential for a rebound or further bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked sharply at 20:15 ET with a large 15-minute candle and a volume of 7,432,253, reflecting increased bearish pressure. Turnover also spiked at that time, confirming the strength of the selloff. However, a divergence emerged between rising volume and declining price in the last 3 hours of the session, indicating potential exhaustion in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.03007 high to the 0.02910 low indicate 38.2% retracement at 0.02964 and 61.8% at 0.02936. The 61.8% level has held as a minor support/resistance zone on the 15-minute chart, with price failing to break through decisively. On the daily chart, the 0.0295 level aligns with the 50% retracement, where price has stalled on multiple occasions.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for SOPHUSDT involves a bearish breakout entry on a breakdown of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.02936, confirmed by a close below the 15-minute 20-period moving average. A stop-loss could be placed above the 38.2% retracement at 0.02964, while a take-profit level aligns with the 0.02910–0.02905 support zone. This approach leverages confluence between moving averages, Fibonacci levels, and price action, with volume and momentum indicators used to confirm the direction of the trade.