Market Overview for Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) – 2025-09-22

• Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) fell sharply from $0.0315 to $0.0285 over 24 hours, signaling strong bearish momentum.
• Volatility surged, with a 200+ bps range observed in the early part of the session.
• Volume spiked at 06:15–06:30 ET as the price dropped to $0.02789, indicating strong selling pressure.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.
• Bollinger Band contraction began in the final hours of the session, hinting at a possible breakout.

At 12:00 ET–1, SOPHUSDT opened at $0.0314, reached a high of $0.0315, and closed at $0.0285 by 12:00 ET, logging a low of $0.02789. Total 24-hour volume was 39.44 million, with turnover amounting to $1.21 million. The pair experienced a sharp bearish reversal in the early hours, with a 9.6% decline from high to low.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a series of lower highs and lower lows over the 24-hour period, suggesting a clear bearish trend. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 06:15 ET as the asset dropped from $0.02992 to $0.02937 in one 15-minute bar. This was followed by a strong continuation into the $0.0285–$0.0286 range, which could signal a key support area. A key resistance level appears to be around $0.0306–$0.0307, where the price previously stalled. A doji formed at 03:00 ET, indicating indecision, and the price failed to reclaim the $0.0303–$0.0305 range afterward.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages by late afternoon, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period line currently sits around $0.0302, while the 20-period line is at $0.0298. The daily chart shows the price well below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, with the 200-day line at $0.0310. This deep bearish divergence suggests sustained pressure unless a reversal emerges.

MACD & RSI

The MACD indicator turned bearish in the early hours of the session, with the histogram shifting to negative territory and the signal line crossing below the zero line. This aligns with the sharp selloff. The RSI dropped to the 30–35 range, reaching oversold levels, which may suggest a near-term bounce if short-term buyers step in. However, the sustained bearish momentum implies that any rally is likely to be short-lived unless accompanied by strong volume.

The 15-minute RSI shows a potential divergence at 04:45 ET, where price made a new low but RSI did not, hinting at possible bear exhaustion in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded early in the session, with the Bollinger Bands widening from around $0.0303–$0.0309 to $0.0295–$0.0315 by 05:00 ET. The price traded near the lower band for most of the session before closing near the lower band. In the final hours, the bands began to contract, a sign of potential consolidation and possible breakout in the next session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the sharp selloff between 06:15 and 07:30 ET, with the 06:15 bar alone accounting for a large portion of the total daily volume. Turnover also surged during these hours, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, after the low was established, volume declined sharply, suggesting a potential pause in selling pressure. This could be an early sign of consolidation or a setup for a counter-trend move, though caution is warranted due to the depth of the decline.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the most recent bearish leg (from $0.0315 to $0.0285) is at $0.0295, where the price paused in the mid-morning before resuming its decline. The 38.2% level at $0.0298 also failed to hold. On a daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the longer-term downtrend aligns near $0.0284–$0.0285, matching the current price level, suggesting a potential key support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when the RSI dips into oversold territory (below 30) and the price breaks below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss could be placed just above the most recent swing high or the upper Bollinger Band, with a target set at the next Fibonacci level. This approach would aim to capitalize on the bearish bias while managing risk with strict stops. Given SOPHUSDT’s behavior, such a strategy could have yielded consistent profits over the past week, especially during periods of high volatility.