Market Overview for Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) – 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price dropped from 0.1454 to 0.1401 overnight, forming a bearish breakdown.
• Volume spiked at key lows, signaling increased selling pressure.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum; price near 20-period MA support.

Opening Report

Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) opened at 0.1454 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.1589, and closed at 0.1401 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume amounted to 114,467,292.6 and total turnover stood at $15,985,433.24 (based on 15-min OHLCV data). The session saw a sharp, broad bearish move, with no clear signs of stabilization or reversal by the final candle.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern forming at the peak of 0.1589 on 2025-11-12 10:30, with a large red candle followed by a sharp retracement. A key support level appears near 0.1401–0.1402, where price tested twice in the latter half of the session. A doji formed at 0.1401 at 2025-11-12 11:45, suggesting short-term indecision but failed to trigger a rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period MA (0.1446) and 50-period MA (0.1450) were both pierced by the bearish move, with price currently below both. The 200-day MA (not shown in this dataset) would likely be above current levels, confirming a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned sharply negative in the final hours, with the histogram showing expanding bearish momentum. RSI dropped from overbought (60–70) early in the morning to oversold (around 30) by the end of the session. This divergence between overbought readings and bearish price action highlights a breakdown in typical mean-reversion behavior.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent a significant portion of the session in the lower third of the bands, confirming a consolidation to the downside. Volatility expanded during the sharp drop between 10:00 and 11:00, with the bands widening. The current price (0.1401) is within the bands but dangerously close to the lower boundary.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown between 10:00 and 10:45, with the candle at 10:30 showing the highest volume (11,813,155.5) and a high of 0.1589. Turnover also increased during this window, confirming the bearish move. A volume divergence occurred in the final hours, where price continued to drop despite lower turnover, suggesting exhaustion or a lack of follow-through selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 0.1401 level aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 0.1401–0.1589 move. This level acted as a temporary floor but failed to provide lasting support. On the daily chart, the 0.1392–0.1402 range appears near a 38.2% retrace of the recent swing, hinting at potential short-term stabilizing behavior.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based backtest produced mixed results, with two trades and a net negative return of –26.6%. The short signal at overbought levels captured a modest gain, but was offset by a deep loss later in the session. Adding 8% stop-loss and 10% take-profit rules reduced risk but couldn’t overcome the bearish bias. The test highlights how mean reversion failed for SUSDT, suggesting a need for stronger trend filters or tighter profit targets. Given the strong bearish momentum and breakdown in typical RSI behavior, a combination of trend-following and tighter exit rules may be more effective for this asset.