Market Overview for Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) — 2025-10-28

• Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) saw a bearish reversal from 0.1749 to 0.1654, with a 4.6% drop in price over 24 hours.
• High volume surges were recorded during the 19:30–20:15 ET session, coinciding with a breakdown below 0.1710.
• RSI approached oversold territory (<35), while Bollinger Bands showed a significant volatility expansion. • A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 0.1745–0.1704 swing, signaling potential short-term continuation. • Turnover increased by over 300% in the 5–6-hour window post-18:00 ET, confirming downward momentum.

Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) opened at 0.1711 on 2025-10-27 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 0.1749, and declined to a low of 0.1654, closing at 0.1682 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-28. Total volume reached 36.4 million, with a notional turnover of approximately $6.1 million over 24 hours. Price action has shown a clear bearish bias, with key breakdowns below key psychological levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period saw the formation of a distinct bearish engulfing pattern between 0.1745 and 0.1704, reinforcing the likelihood of continued selling pressure. A minor support level appears to have formed around 0.1672–0.1676, with some minor bounce observed in the early ET hours. The price appears to have tested and failed to re-test the 0.1704–0.1718 range, suggesting that this former support is now acting as a resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both turned bearish, with the 20-line crossing below the 50-line in a death cross formation. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100 and 200-period lines, but the slope is flattening, indicating a potential trend reversal. The price is now trading below all three major daily moving averages, suggesting a bearish bias for the next 24–48 hours.

MACD & RSI

The RSI for SUSDT has dipped into oversold territory (32–35) in the final hours of the 24-hour window, suggesting the price may have found a short-term floor. However, the MACD remains negative, with both the line and histogram below zero, indicating continued bearish momentum. The divergence between RSI and MACD suggests a cautious outlook—while the RSI hints at a possible rebound, the MACD suggests that the bearish trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly during the breakdown phase, with the 20-period standard deviation widening from ~0.0003 to ~0.0015. Price is currently trading near the lower band, which may suggest an increased probability of a mean reversion. However, with the bands themselves widening, the increased volatility implies a continuation of the downward move is more likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:30–20:15 ET period, coinciding with the breakdown below 0.1710. This high-volume bearish move was confirmed by a corresponding increase in notional turnover. In contrast, the rebound in the 03:00–05:00 ET session showed higher volume with lower turnover, a sign of weaker buyer conviction. The divergence between volume and turnover during the rebound period suggests weak follow-through buying, reinforcing the bearish scenario.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.1704–0.1749 swing, the 0.1728 (38.2%) and 0.1715 (61.8%) levels appear to have acted as psychological support/resistance. The price now appears to be consolidating near the 0.1672–0.1682 range, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement of the most recent bearish move from 0.1749 to 0.1654.

Backtest Hypothesis

To assess the potential viability of a strategy targeting overbought RSI levels in conjunction with bearish candlestick patterns, a backtest could be constructed using SUSDT’s 15-minute OHLCV data. A 14-period RSI with standard overbought (70+) and oversold (<30) thresholds, paired with a bearish engulfing pattern confirmation, could form a robust signal filter. Assuming daily close-price execution, the backtest could evaluate the effectiveness of this strategy from 2022-01-01 through 2025-10-28. If the price reacts to overbought RSI levels with bearish candlestick formations, the strategy might yield profitable short-term trades during high-volatility phases, such as the current bearish trend.