Market Overview for Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) traded in a bearish range amid heavy volume, closing near the session low with oversold RSI.
• Key support at 0.26–0.27 appears robust, while resistance levels at 0.285–0.288 are under pressure from bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded after a midday breakdown, with Bollinger Bands reflecting a sharp narrowing and then rapid expansion.
• Downturn in price coincided with increasing volume, indicating a likely continuation of bearish sentiment in the near-term.
• A potential bullish reversal may form if buyers can reclaim the 0.275–0.278 Fibonacci retracement level.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09, Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) opened at 0.2812, reached a high of 0.2896, and closed at 0.2703 with a low of 0.261. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 91.6 million tokens and a notional turnover of $24.3 million. Price action revealed a bearish bias, with key support at 0.26–0.27 and resistance near 0.285–0.288 showing significant bearish pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a strong bearish bias after a midday peak. A breakdown below the 0.276 level triggered a series of bearish candlesticks, including long lower wicks and a potential bearish engulfing pattern around 0.274. A key support zone between 0.26 and 0.27 appears to be holding so far, with a potential for consolidation or a short-term rebound if buyers step in near that level. A doji formed at 0.2705, suggesting indecision and the possibility of a near-term reversal or continuation depending on the context of volume and momentum.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart show a steep bearish crossover, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 200-period MA, a bearish signal. The 100-period MA also supports the bearish bias, indicating a strong likelihood of continuation unless a sharp reversal occurs near key Fibonacci levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remains below zero, with the histogram showing a consistent bearish divergence in recent hours. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory near 28–30, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, though this does not necessarily confirm a bullish reversal. A sustained move above 0.275 may trigger a RSI rebound, but without a volume surge, the likelihood of a reversal remains low.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a sharp expansion after a midday consolidation phase. Price has moved significantly below the 20-period lower band, indicating heightened volatility and bearish momentum. A rebound near the lower band may test the 0.26–0.27 support area, and any bounce above the middle band would be a positive signal for short-term traders.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked after the breakdown below 0.276, with heavy bearish participation confirmed by notional turnover. The volume-turnover correlation appears strong, with no signs of divergence between price and volume. A significant increase in volume during the 0.264–0.268 range suggests a consolidation phase is forming, which could set the stage for either a continuation or a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent swings on the 15-minute chart indicate a potential retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.275 and the 61.8% level at 0.270. A successful retest of the 0.270 level could trigger a bearish extension, while a close above 0.275 would suggest a potential reversal. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level at 0.26 is a key watchpoint for trend continuation or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy in question leverages a momentum-based entry at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.275) with a stop-loss placed just below the 0.270 level and a take-profit target at the 61.8% level (0.270). Given the bearish RSI and strong volume during the breakdown, this approach may be better suited for short selling rather than long entries, particularly with price currently near the 61.8% level. The current setup suggests high probability for continuation below 0.270, making a short position a more viable strategy in line with the technical bias.