Market Overview for Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) – 2025-10-06 12:00 ET

• Price declined 0.44% on a bearish close amid high-volume bearish 15-minute moves.
• Volatility expanded post-18:15 ET as price dropped to 0.2742, with a 0.2813 spike signaling short-covering.
• RSI entered oversold territory briefly, but lack of follow-through suggests bearish momentum remains intact.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, with a narrowing trend preceding the drop.
• Volume spiked in early recovery attempts, yet price failed to retest key resistance above 0.2817.

Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) opened at 0.2820 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET and closed at 0.2750 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. The 24-hour range reached a high of 0.2867 and a low of 0.2725. Total notional turnover was $192,979,174.48 across a volume of 693,001,000 tokens.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a distinct bearish bias following a key breakdown below 0.2817, forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the 00:00 candle and a long lower shadow at 0.2750. A series of lower highs and lower lows emerged after 19:15 ET, with 0.2742 acting as a short-term support. The 0.2750 level now appears as a critical floor, where multiple bullish reversal patterns—such as a morning star and a bullish harami—formed in the last two candles of the bearish phase. Key resistance lies at 0.2817 and 0.2831, both previously tested and rejected.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned below current price action, indicating downward momentum. The 50-period line is near 0.2766, suggesting a potential retest if bulls regain control. Daily averages (50, 100, and 200 periods) show a slightly more neutral setup with the 50-day line at 0.2776 and the 200-day near 0.2747—indicating a potential consolidation phase may be forming near current levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover, while the RSI dipped below 30 in the late hours, indicating a temporary oversold condition. However, price failed to respond to the RSI bounce, suggesting weak conviction. A bearish divergence appeared as RSI peaked at 50 before price continued to fall. Traders should watch for a RSI rebound above 40 to signal a potential short-covering rally.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent most of the session near the lower band of a wide Bollinger band set, which expanded after a narrow consolidation phase from 02:00 to 09:00 ET. The band’s recent widening suggests increased volatility, with the 0.2750–0.2770 range acting as a key zone to monitor for potential reversion to the mean. A sustained move above the 0.2785 upper band would suggest a re-uptrend, while a break below 0.2731 could accelerate the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the early hours as bears pushed price down to 0.2742, with one candle (19:15) showing $3,603,781.20 in turnover. However, volume dropped off significantly in the recovery phase, with bullish candles showing weak participation. The price-volume divergence suggests bears remain in control, with little immediate reversal potential unless buying pressure intensifies above 0.2770.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 0.2867 to 0.2725 shows key retracement levels at 0.2787 (23.6%), 0.2795 (38.2%), and 0.2805 (50%). Price has shown hesitation at these levels, with 0.2805 appearing as a potential short-term resistance if the trend reverses. A break above 0.2817 could trigger a test of the 61.8% retracement at 0.2829, which aligns with prior resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could focus on the RSI divergence and Fibonacci retest. A sell signal could be triggered when RSI peaks above 50 and fails to close above 0.2805, while a buy signal could be triggered if price breaks above 0.2817 with a confirmed bullish engulfing pattern and increased volume. Stop-loss and take-profit levels could be placed at 0.2731 and 0.2835, respectively. This approach aims to capture both continuation and reversal trades based on clear technical signals.