Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT)

Summary
• Price dropped from 0.4101 to 0.3805 with bearish momentum on RSI and MACD.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, suggesting heightened volatility.
• Volume surged in early ET morning before a sharp pullback, indicating selling pressure.

Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at 0.4093 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3805 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.4208 and a low of 0.3742, with total volume traded at 9,091,252.0 and total turnover at $3,461,671.90 over the 24-hour period. The price action suggests a sharp bearish reversal, marked by strong volume and a breakdown below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price chart reveals a bearish continuation pattern as the price breaks below a key support level that previously acted as a floor. A series of lower lows and lower highs has formed, indicating a potential trend reversal. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at 0.4105–0.4069, signaling strong bearish sentiment. Additionally, the price appears to have rejected attempts to rally above 0.4085–0.4105, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has fallen below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (at 0.4093) is above the 100-period MA (at 0.4048), suggesting a potential divergence if the price continues to fall below the 200-period MA (at 0.4031). This could indicate a stronger bearish bias over the coming days.

MACD & RSI

The RSI is currently at 28.7, indicating oversold conditions, though this may not necessarily signal a reversal without accompanying volume confirmation. The MACD has crossed into negative territory, with bearish divergence between price and momentum. Both indicators suggest that while the pair is oversold, the bearish trend is likely to persist unless a strong reversal candle forms.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly as the price moved from the upper band (0.4208) to the lower band (0.3742). The current price of 0.3805 sits near the lower band, suggesting that further downside is probable unless the price closes above the middle band (0.3973). This setup is consistent with a bearish breakout scenario.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key breakdown levels, especially between 19:00 and 21:00 ET, before tapering off during the late ET hours. The high volume during the breakdown confirms bearish conviction, while the lower volume in recent hours suggests a lack of follow-through buying. This divergence may indicate a potential pause in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.4208 to 0.3742, the price currently sits near the 61.8% retracement level at 0.3937. A break below 0.3742 (100% extension) could open the door to the next key level at 0.3679. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.3995, which could act as a potential short-term support if the trend reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy applied an RSI-based approach, targeting oversold conditions (RSI < 30) with fixed risk controls of +5% take-profit and –2% stop-loss. Over the period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11, this strategy generated a total return of 13.2%, with an annualized return of 65.6%. While these results are impressive, the current RSI at 28.7 shows the pair is in oversold territory, but without clear reversal signs, the strategy may not trigger a buy signal immediately. This underscores the importance of volume confirmation in oversold scenarios—without it, the risk of a false reversal remains high.