Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT)

• The price of Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) declined by 8.2% over 24 hours, hitting an intraday low of 1.162 before rebounding to 1.2039.
• Strong volume expansion was observed in the late afternoon, indicating renewed short-term interest.
• RSI reached oversold levels and began reversing, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the morning 15-minute candles, followed by a bullish reversal in the afternoon.
• Volatility increased significantly after 14:30 ET, with price fluctuating over 3% in a 3-hour window.

Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at 1.3303 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.2039 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 1.3665 and a low of 1.162 over 24 hours. Total trading volume was 95,715,127.39 (in base asset) with a notional turnover of $121,086,555 (based on closing prices).

Structure & Formations

Price carved a distinct bearish wedge during the early morning hours, with a sharp selloff from 1.3365 to a 24-hour low of 1.162. This was followed by a strong rebound and consolidation in the 1.18–1.20 range by midday. A key support zone appears to have formed between 1.162 and 1.175, coinciding with the early afternoon low and the RSI oversold level. A bullish reversal candle formed around 10:00 ET, which may indicate a near-term support test and potential bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed to the downside in the early morning, confirming a short-term bearish bias. However, by 10:00 ET, price closed above the 50SMA, signaling a possible shift in momentum. The 200-period MA on the daily chart remains above 1.28, indicating a longer-term bearish structure.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early morning, followed by a narrowing histogram as the price approached 1.162. RSI hit oversold levels at 28 during the same period, which coincided with a price reversal and initial recovery. A subsequent MACD crossover back to the bullish side occurred after 10:00 ET, suggesting a short-term bounce could be in the cards.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price hit the 1.162 support, with the lower band reaching 1.145. Price has since remained within the bands, fluctuating between 1.17 and 1.21. A contraction in the Bollinger Bands occurred during the mid-morning lull, followed by a sharp break above the midline. This may indicate a period of consolidation is ending, with potential for a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked sharply after 14:30 ET, reaching a 24-hour high of 5.65 million contracts in a 15-minute window. This occurred during a 3% price swing and was accompanied by a corresponding increase in notional turnover. No significant divergence was observed between volume and price, suggesting the recent bounce has some strength behind it.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying a Fibonacci to the recent 1.3665–1.162 swing, key levels include 1.188 (23.6%), 1.213 (38.2%), and 1.245 (50%). Price is currently consolidating just below the 38.2% level, and a break above 1.213 could signal further recovery potential.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy relies on a confluence of RSI oversold levels and bullish candlestick patterns as entry triggers. Based on today’s move, a trade initiated at 10:00 ET on the bullish reversal candle, combined with RSI at 30, would have captured a significant portion of the subsequent rebound. A stop-loss placed below 1.162 and a take-profit at the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.213 would have yielded a favorable risk-reward profile, confirming the strategy's viability during high-volatility periods.