Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary (2025-09-10)

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• Price dropped sharply from 1.2187 to 1.024, with a bearish momentum confirmed by RSI below 30.
• High volume surges observed during the downtrend suggest significant selling pressure and market participation.
• Candlestick patterns like engulfing and bearish hammers emerged, signaling ongoing bearish bias.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a bounce or continuation.
• Volume and turnover moved in alignment with the price decline, supporting the bearish trend with strong conviction.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-10, Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at 1.2187, reached a high of 1.242, a low of 1.0217, and closed at 1.024. Over the 24-hour period, the pair saw a total volume of 60,890,124.0 units and a notional turnover of ~$62,614,205 (assuming USD-based calculations). The pronounced bearish move reflects a significant shift in sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a sharp breakdown after a failed attempt to retest earlier highs. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 15:30 ET (2025-09-09 160000), followed by a bearish hammer at 03:15 ET (2025-09-10 031500), reinforcing the bearish setup. Key support levels emerged near 1.1100–1.1300, where price temporarily paused during the early morning, but failed to stabilize. Resistance appears to be disintegrating at 1.1600–1.1800, as buyers were unable to hold ground after several attempts. A doji at 07:30 ET (2025-09-10 073000) suggests indecision before a new bearish wave emerged.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are both below the current price, confirming the bearish bias. Price remains below both averages, indicating a short-term downtrend. For daily data, the 50DMA and 200DMA would likely be above current levels, though without daily data, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart also point to bearish alignment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and is trending lower, with a bearish crossover confirmed during the early morning hours. The RSI dropped to 28, indicating oversold conditions, which could either trigger a bounce or signal exhaustion of the bearish move. However, with the RSI failing to rebound above 40 despite the drop, momentum remains bearish, and a further decline is more likely than a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum and key support levels, a backtesting strategy could be designed around shorting on a breakout below 1.1100, with a stop-loss above the 1.1366 level, and a target of 1.0877–1.0951, the most recent swing low. A trailing stop could be placed at each new low to capture continued bearish movement. This strategy would align with MACD divergence, RSI oversold conditions, and Bollinger Band contraction, all of which are present in the recent 15-minute data.