Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• The 24-hour session saw a sharp 18.6% decline in price from $0.6992 to $0.565, with volatility peaking around 19:30 ET.
• Volume surged to 2.8M at 21:00 ET as price dropped to $0.6033, and a further 4.6M at 21:30 ET during a massive selloff to $0.3211.
• A key bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.6793 (19:30 ET), confirming downward momentum and lack of near-term support.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, indicating high volatility, while RSI entered oversold territory at 21:45 ET.
• Turnover diverged from price after the low at $0.565, suggesting potential short-term stabilization and buying interest.

Opening Summary and 24-Hour Action

Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at $0.6992 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at $0.565 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET, hitting an intraday high of $0.6995 and a low of $0.3211. The pair fell sharply in the late afternoon and evening, with total volume across the 24-hour period reaching 123,643,385 units, and total turnover (notional volume) at $61,964,697. The sharp sell-off beginning at 19:30 ET marked a key structural breakdown.

Structure & Formations

The price structure displayed a clear bearish reversal with a large bearish engulfing candle at $0.6793 (19:30 ET), followed by a massive bear trap and breakdown below prior support levels. A doji formed near $0.4116 (21:30 ET), signaling exhaustion in the downtrend. A bullish harami near $0.5354 (00:15 ET) showed short-term buying interest but failed to hold above $0.55.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

Volume surged dramatically at 21:00 ET (2.8M) and again at 21:30 ET (4.6M), coinciding with major price declines to $0.6033 and $0.3211. Turnover spiked in these periods, confirming the bearish momentum. However, from 00:00 ET onward, volume remained consistently above 400K, with price consolidating near $0.565, indicating potential support at that level.

MACD & RSI Indicators

The MACD turned sharply negative during the 21:00–21:30 ET window, confirming the bearish breakout. RSI hit oversold territory near 25 during the 21:45 ET candle and has since shown signs of stabilizing. While RSI remains below 50, the divergence in price and oscillator suggests a potential near-term bounce may be imminent.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 21:00–22:00 ET selloff, indicating extreme volatility. Price closed near the lower band at $0.565, and the bands have since narrowed, signaling a potential consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retracement level from the $0.6995 high to the $0.3211 low sits at ~$0.547, which aligns with price action seen in the 00:45–02:00 ET window. The 61.8% retracement at ~$0.511 coincided with price consolidating between $0.5035 and $0.5231. This suggests that $0.511 may act as a key short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy suggests using a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band contractions to identify potential bounce opportunities in oversold environments. Given the current setup with RSI near oversold and a narrowing of the Bollinger Bands, the strategy would have triggered a long signal near the $0.565 level. A stop-loss could be placed below $0.555, with a target aligned with the 38.2% retracement at $0.547. This approach could potentially capitalize on a short-term rebound in the pair after the recent sharp decline.