Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• Price declined from 0.8401 to 0.7485 on 15-minute candles, with a large bearish engulfing pattern observed near 0.8232.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while volume spiked during the sharp selloff between 0.8232 and 0.7753.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening as price drifted below the 20-period moving average.
• Fibonacci retracements highlighted key levels at 0.7765 (38.2%) and 0.7534 (61.8%) as potential support.
• The 200-period MA on daily candles remains above current price, suggesting long-term bearish bias.

Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at 0.8372 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.8403, fell to a low of 0.7460, and closed at 0.7485 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. The pair traded 8,850,367.0 units with a notional turnover of $6,579,934.89 in 24 hours. Price action showed a clear bearish trend over the last 24 hours, marked by a sharp drop from 0.8372 to 0.7485.

The structure of the 15-minute chart reveals multiple key levels. A large bearish engulfing candle was observed at 0.8232, confirming a shift in momentum. A doji candle at 0.7820 suggested indecision. The 20-period moving average currently sits at 0.7863, while the 50-period MA is at 0.7754—both above the current price of 0.7485, indicating bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.8113, and the 200-period MA is at 0.8235, reinforcing a long-term downtrend.

The RSI has fallen into the oversold zone at 29.3, suggesting a potential bounce or consolidation. However, the MACD is in bear territory with a histogram showing negative momentum, indicating a continuation of the downward trend is more likely. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, reflecting increasing volatility, and the current price of 0.7485 lies well below the 20-period band midline. The volume has surged during the selloff between 0.8232 and 0.7753, confirming bearish sentiment, with no notable divergence between price and turnover.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the last major swing from 0.8403 to 0.7460 indicate key potential support at 0.7765 (38.2%) and 0.7534 (61.8%). A bounce from the 0.7534 level could trigger short-term buyers, but a break below 0.7460 may target the next retracement at 0.7304 (78.6%). These levels can act as dynamic zones for potential reversals or continuation of the trend.

Backtest Hypothesis
A mean-reversion strategy could be tested by entering long positions when price retests the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.7534 during an oversold RSI reading (below 30) and exits when price breaks the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart. This approach would leverage the oversold condition and Fibonacci support, while using the 20-period MA as a filter for trend strength. Given the recent bearish momentum and the current positioning below the 20-period MA, this setup may carry higher risk unless volume increases confirm reversal strength.