Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) on 2025-09-26

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• Price dropped sharply from 0.8652 to 0.8115, with oversold RSI suggesting a potential reversal.
• Volatility expanded mid-day as Bollinger Bands widened, indicating heightened uncertainty.
• Key support at 0.830–0.835 tested twice, with volume surging during the 12:00–13:45 ET breakdown.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.850–0.840 during early morning hours, signaling bearish momentum.
• Total volume reached 10.36M, with turnover hitting $8.95M, indicating aggressive trading despite low liquidity periods.

Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at 0.8527 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.8348 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The pair reached a high of 0.871 and a low of 0.8115 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was approximately 10.36 million, with a notional turnover of about $8.95 million.

Structure and price action indicate a bearish continuation, with a strong breakdown from key support at 0.840–0.835. A bearish engulfing pattern at 0.850–0.840 confirmed the downtrend, while a doji at 0.8405–0.8405 indicated indecision. Support levels at 0.830 and 0.825 appear robust, with price bouncing off both on multiple occasions. Resistance remains weak, with no clear reversal signs at higher levels.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover between the 20 and 50 EMA lines, confirming downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50 EMA is well above the 200 EMA, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. Price remains below all major moving averages, reinforcing the bearish structure.

The RSI reached oversold territory at 28 during the late afternoon session, suggesting a possible bounce. However, MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram and a downtrend in the signal line. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the price breakdown, indicating heightened volatility. Price remains near the lower band, a classic bearish signal.

Volume spiked during key breakdowns and consolidations, particularly between 12:00 and 13:45 ET, with a sharp drop in turnover indicating reduced conviction in the bearish move. No clear divergence was observed between price and volume, suggesting the breakdown is legitimate.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the most recent 15-minute swing (0.871 to 0.8115) show support levels at 0.840 (38.2%) and 0.825 (61.8%). The daily chart retracement from 0.871 to 0.8348 places key support at 0.855 (38.2%) and 0.844 (50%), both of which were tested and broken.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy in question involves a combination of RSI and MACD signals to identify short-term entries during bearish trends. The approach is to go short on a bearish RSI crossover below 50, confirmed by a bearish MACD histogram divergence or a negative crossover. Stop-loss is placed at the recent swing high, and take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci level. Given the current market context, this strategy appears to have reasonable potential as long as the key support levels hold and the bearish trend continues. However, traders should remain cautious of a potential rebound off the 0.830–0.835 range.