Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) – 2025-09-21

• Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) posted a 24-hour low of $1.1645, with a -9.4% decline from the prior 24-hour high of $1.2443.
• Price action showed a sharp bearish breakdown after 20:00 ET, with a 5-hour drop from $1.21 to $1.16.
• RSI hit oversold levels near 25, while volume surged over $1.6M during the key 5:15–5:45 AM ET rebound.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion, indicating heightened volatility during the selloff.
• A potential short-term support is forming near $1.16–$1.17, with bearish engulfing patterns observed on the 15-minute chart.

The 24-hour period for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) closed at $1.1695, down from an open of $1.2434, with a high of $1.2443 and a low of $1.1645. Total volume reached 29.6 million, while notional turnover was approximately $35.9 million. Price action was bearish, characterized by a sharp breakdown in late NY trading hours followed by choppy consolidation.

Structure & Formations

Price has formed a series of bearish engulfing patterns, especially between 19:15 and 20:15 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. Key support levels appear to be forming at $1.16–$1.17, and the $1.20–$1.22 area acts as immediate resistance. A long lower shadow appeared at 05:15 ET, hinting at a short-term bounce, but the bearish momentum has not yet reversed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has remained below both 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the downtrend. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) are not directly provided, but intraday behavior suggests the 50-period MA may act as a dynamic resistance in the near term. A cross above $1.20 would be necessary for any bullish reentry signal.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory for much of the session, with a bearish crossover observed at 19:30 ET. RSI reached oversold conditions at $1.1645 but has not yet shown a convincing reversal. Momentum appears to be weakening but remains bearish. A sustained close above $1.20 could spark a RSI rebound into neutral or overbought territory.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion as price moved downward from $1.24 to $1.16, indicating rising volatility. Price has settled near the lower band, but without a strong bounce, this could signal continued bearish pressure. A contraction in band width may precede a directional breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged significantly at 05:15 ET and again at 05:45 ET, corresponding to a brief $1.16–$1.19 rebound. However, price failed to hold above $1.18, and volume declined afterward, indicating a lack of conviction. Notional turnover reached a peak of $1.6 million during this rebound, but it remains below the earlier bearish breakdown level at $1.21–$1.22.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent high of $1.2443 and low of $1.1645, the 38.2% level is at $1.215 and the 61.8% level is at $1.196. The current price is near the 61.8% retracement, which could serve as a potential short-term floor. A break below this level could push price toward the next Fibonacci level at $1.177.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and Fibonacci positioning near $1.196, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry at the 61.8% retracement level with a stop-loss above $1.20. A target could be set at the next Fibonacci level at $1.177, with a trailing stop at 1.5% below the entry. This approach leverages both technical indicators (RSI and MACD) and Fibonacci levels to manage risk and reward.