Market Overview: Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• The 24-hour price for Somnia/Tether rose from 1.2333 to 1.3174, with a final close of 1.2582
• A bullish breakout pattern formed around 1.2850, followed by consolidation
• RSI and MACD signaled strong buying pressure in early hours but momentum weakened by late afternoon
• Volatility expanded midday as Bollinger Bands widened, with a final reversion to mean
• Notable volume spikes occurred at 1.27 and 1.29, indicating strong interest during key levels

The price of Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at 1.2333 on 2025-09-17 and surged to an intraday high of 1.3174 before closing at 1.2582 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET. The total trading volume across the 24-hour period was 38,427,867.3, with a notional turnover of approximately $48,278,744. The price experienced a strong bullish push from 1.25 to above 1.30, followed by a pullback, showing a mixed but ultimately higher-close narrative.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a key bullish structure forming between 1.27 and 1.30, with the price breaking above the prior resistance at 1.2850 and forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. A notable bullish engulfing pattern occurred at 1.2880, signaling potential continuation of the uptrend. Later in the session, the price consolidated around 1.26–1.27, where a potential support level formed. A doji around 1.2610 also hinted at indecision and possible reversal in the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed during the breakout at 1.28, reinforcing the bullish momentum. The price stayed above both for most of the session. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages were not clearly defined due to the limited data window, but the 100-day MA would likely serve as a key support or resistance zone depending on the broader context.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory early in the session and remained so for much of the day, confirming the bullish move. RSI reached levels near overbought (70) around midday, suggesting temporary exhaustion. However, this was followed by a pullback and stabilization in the 55–65 range. The RSI divergence seen in the afternoon (price rising while RSI declined) indicated a possible near-term pullback, though the trend remained intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout phase from 1.25 to 1.30, with the price testing the upper band multiple times. This expansion indicated a period of heightened volatility. As the price pulled back toward the 1.26–1.27 range in the final hours, it re-entered the band center, suggesting a return to mean reversion and a potential pause in the upward trend. The narrowing of bands in the final hours signaled a potential setup for another breakout or consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the breakout around 1.28–1.30, with the largest 15-minute volume of 1,161,428.5 at 04:15 ET, aligning with the intraday high. Turnover also increased during this period, showing strong participation. However, volume declined significantly in the afternoon as the price pulled back, indicating reduced conviction in the continuation of the bullish move. A divergence between price and volume occurred in the late afternoon, where the price continued to fall despite relatively stable volume, suggesting a possible short-term bottom near 1.25.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.23 to 1.3174, the price tested the 61.8% level at 1.274 before retreating to the 50% level around 1.277. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels would represent potential support and resistance, respectively, depending on the broader trend. The consolidation around 1.25–1.26 aligns with the 38.2% retracement level, suggesting a potential bounce or further correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would involve entering long positions during bullish engulfing patterns near key Fibonacci support levels, using MACD and RSI to confirm momentum. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent swing low, while a take-profit target might align with the next Fibonacci extension level. This strategy would benefit from high-volume entries and would aim to capture retracements after strong breakouts. The pullback observed in the late afternoon and the volume divergence present a natural entry point for testing such a hypothesis.