Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) on 2025-09-05

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• Price surged 36% from $0.392 to $0.5289, breaking through key resistance levels on strong volume in late ET hours.
• Momentum accelerated post-18:30 ET with a bullish engulfing pattern, followed by a consolidation phase from 23:00 to 01:00 ET.
• High volatility persisted into early AM, with price oscillating between $0.53 and $0.57, before retreating on waning momentum.
• Volume and turnover surged post-18:30 ET, with the highest single-candle turnover reaching $4.68 million.
• RSI briefly entered overbought territory, indicating potential near-term profit-taking, while Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion.

1. Opening Summary and Key Price Action

Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at $0.392 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-04 and closed at $0.5289 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05. The pair reached a high of $0.5702 and a low of $0.384, with a total trading volume of 65,664,072.1 units and a notional turnover of $27.5 million over the 24-hour period. The late ET hours saw a decisive breakout and bullish continuation pattern, suggesting strong buyer interest.

2. Structure and Candlestick Formations

The price formation between 18:30 and 19:30 ET showed a bullish engulfing pattern with a 15-minute candle opening at $0.4374 and closing at $0.5516 — a 25.3% move. This was followed by a tall white candle on high volume, confirming the breakout. However, consolidation from 23:00 to 02:00 ET showed indecision with multiple doji and spinning top patterns, indicating a possible pause in momentum. Key resistance levels now appear at $0.55 and $0.57, with $0.53 as a short-term support level.

3. Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA in the late ET hours, signaling a bullish crossover. The daily 50 EMA is currently below the price, supporting a medium-term bullish bias, while the 200 EMA lies further below at $0.46. This suggests a continuation of the short-term trend is likely if the 50 EMA remains above the 200 EMA. The MACD histogram turned positive from 18:30 ET, indicating growing bullish momentum, though it has since flattened, signaling a potential pause.

4. RSI, Bollinger Bands, and Volatility

The RSI reached 70 in the early AM hours, entering overbought territory and suggesting potential short-term profit-taking. However, it remains above 50, which indicates a bullish bias. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout phase (18:30–19:30 ET), showing heightened volatility. Currently, the price is trading in the middle-to-upper band, consistent with a strong bullish trend. If it closes below the middle band, it may indicate a near-term pullback.

5. Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked sharply from 18:30 to 20:00 ET, with the 18:30 candle showing the highest volume at 6,158,709 units, confirming the breakout. Notional turnover reached a peak of $4.68 million during this period. However, turnover declined post-02:00 ET, despite continued price consolidation, suggesting divergence between volume and price action. This divergence may signal a potential shift in sentiment or exhaustion in the bullish move.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing (0.384–0.5702), key levels include 0.5315 (38.2%), 0.5210 (50%), and 0.5105 (61.8%). The price has tested and rebounded from the 61.8% level (0.5105), suggesting strong support. On the daily chart, a Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low to high (previous week's range) places 0.53 and 0.49 as critical levels. If the price continues to fall below 0.5105, a retest of the 61.8% level at 0.49 could be expected.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bullish engulfing pattern and EMA crossover, a potential backtesting strategy could include a long entry at the close of the engulfing candle (19:00 ET), with a stop loss placed below the 18:45 ET low at $0.485. A take profit could be set at the next Fibonacci resistance level, which aligns with the 50% retracement at $0.5210. A trailing stop may be triggered at $0.49, aligning with the 61.8% level. This approach would capitalize on the short-to-medium-term bullish trend confirmed by volume and EMA crossover, while managing risk via Fibonacci levels and diverging momentum.